With a fresh wave of tariffs rattling trade partners and unsettling financial markets, the United States now finds itself at the crossroads of an unexpected fallout — its once-thriving inbound tourism sector. A country long regarded as a linchpin of global travel is beginning to feel the sting of waning confidence as prospective visitors from Europe, Asia, and the Americas grow wary. Amid rising costs and diplomatic tension, many travellers pause to see whether the situation will stabilise before locking in their flights.
New data from Mabrian, a global travel intelligence platform under The Data Appeal Company, paints a troubling picture of the United States’ positioning in the global travel arena. From January to March 2025, international flight search behaviour—a strong indicator of future bookings—fluctuated significantly across 10 major source markets. Many now opt for a “wait-and-see” approach, a trend threatening to derail the country’s tourism revival.
Mixed Fortunes: Europe’s Travel Intent Wanes
The U.S. has long been a European dream destination — but that dream now appears dimmed. According to the Share of Flight Searches Index, demand from EU27 countries fell by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, landing at just 5.4% of total flight searches.
“Europeans are particularly sensitive to global tensions and diplomatic developments,” said Carlos Cendra, Partner and Marketing & Communications Director at Mabrian. “When the image of a destination shifts, especially one as powerful as the U.S., travel intent takes a hit.”
Germany and Italy, in particular, posted nearly a full percentage point drop compared to last year. Meanwhile, France trended similarly downward as travellers expressed unease after the January presidential inauguration and new economic barriers such as trade tariffs.
The UK, however, bucked the trend — at least momentarily. Despite a 1.1% dip in February, bookings surged by 1.6% in March, suggesting a short-term boost in confidence.
“British travel sentiment remains more agile, likely due to historical familiarity and airlift connectivity with the U.S.,” added Cendra. “But that resilience could weaken if policy volatility persists.”
The Americas: Brazil and Canada Teeter on the Edge
In South America, Brazil’s enthusiasm for U.S. travel is visibly cooling. As measured by search intent, inspirational demand dropped an average of -1.2 percentage points, bringing its current share to 8%. More concerning is the confirmed bookings metric: Between February and March 2025, Brazilian travel bookings to the U.S. slumped by 15%.
North of the equator, Canada presents a more complicated picture. While the Share of Searches Index held steady at 22.3%, actual bookings told a different story—with declines of -15.7 % in February and -14.5 % in March. A modest rebound of +18.7% year-on-year by late March suggests the potential for a turnaround, but experts warn it may not last.
“This delicate uptick is a sign of hope,” Cendra noted, “but we’ve seen how easily confidence can unravel in uncertain times. Much depends on how the U.S. navigates its next moves.”
Asia’s Divided Outlook: Confidence Rising in the East Asia delivers a tale of two continents.
Once a dependable mainstay in the U.S. tourism landscape, Japan is now stepping back. Interest from Japanese travellers has tapered off noticeably in early 2025, with the nation’s share of flight searches to the United States sitting at just 4.1% — falling short of last year’s figures. Without meaningful diplomatic gestures or economic sweeteners on the horizon, there’s little to suggest a turnaround is imminent.
Meanwhile, travel sentiment in East Asia is anything but uniform. In an unexpected lift, China and South Korea have shown strong and consistent momentum since the start of the year. China’s flight search share rose to 9.1%, and South Korea has followed a similar upward path, reaching 6.7%. Week by week, both markets have outperformed their 2024 benchmarks, suggesting a growing appetite for U.S. travel despite the broader geopolitical noise.
The intent has also translated into action. In March, South Korean passenger numbers to the U.S. doubled compared to the same month last year, while Chinese traveller bookings surged by 40% in February and jumped a further 23% in March—clear signals of confidence returning in these markets.
“This is a striking reversal,” Cendra observed. “We’re witnessing the resilience of Asian outbound markets — and their growing appetite for American experiences, even amid a turbulent policy landscape.”
A Shorter Booking Horizon and a Shift in Habits
The data also uncovers an evolving behavioural trend: people are shortening their planning windows. In top markets like Japan, Brazil, and Canada, travellers increasingly book at the last minute, hedging against possible policy swings.
“This is the double-edged effect we’re seeing,” said Cendra. “People either book last-minute to avoid disappointment or delay decisions altogether. Both are signs of reduced trust in long-term certainty.”
The Tariff Tremor: Echoes of the Great Depression?
As the world digests the implications of the U.S. government’s tariff surge, discussions on social media have taken a historical turn. According to GlobalData’s Social Media Analytics, “Great Depression” spiked in usage among influencers during the first week of April.
“The parallels with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 are impossible to ignore,” said Shreyasee Majumder, Social Media Analyst at GlobalData. “There’s a palpable fear that history may be repeating itself — with higher prices, trade disruption, and a blow to consumer confidence.”
Industry voices echoed these concerns:
Ben Carlson, Director at Ritholtz Wealth Management, warned: “This was a historic week. We just witnessed the biggest economic policy mistake since the Great Depression. And they don’t even care.”
Professor Steve Hanke, a noted economist, added: “Like the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs of 1930, Trump’s tariffs are putting massive downward pressure on the economy. An economic slowdown is baked in the cake.”
Such sentiments, while alarming, reflect the broader anxiety facing both markets and consumers.
Uncertain Waters Ahead: Industry on Alert
In a joint statement, Mabrian and The Data Appeal Company confirmed they would closely monitor global booking behaviour as the 2025 summer season approaches. Their reports will track how tariff impacts, travel restrictions, and political narratives influence traveller decisions.
Mirko Lalli, CEO of The Data Appeal Company, underscored that “Travel demand is fluid. Tariff news, policy decisions, and media coverage have a real-time impact on how travellers view destinations. March showed some signs of recovery — but the outlook remains extremely sensitive.”
Final Thoughts: Is the U.S. Still a Top Draw?
Despite the U.S.’s vast allure—from cultural landmarks to natural wonders—an undercurrent of uncertainty is beginning to corrode its appeal to global tourists.
While some markets remain strong, the message is clear: travellers are no longer willing to risk their plans on unstable ground. More consistent and welcoming policy signals are urgently needed if the United States wishes to remain a global tourism powerhouse.
For now, the world is watching — and waiting.
Written by Jason Smith (US Corresponent)
