For the first time since records began, temperatures of 40°C are likely in the UK today and tomorrow, with experts warning thousands of people could die.
The UK Met Office has issued its first-ever Red warning for “exceptional heat”, which is expected to affect a large part of England, “with temperatures likely in the high 30s C in some places and perhaps even reaching 40°C”.
The level 4 heat alert announced for today (Monday 18 July) and Tuesday by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) means “illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups”.
⚠️⚠️🔴 Red Extreme heat warning issued 🔴⚠️⚠️
Temperatures of 40°C+ occur from time to time in Australian cities but are unheard of in Britain. A forecaster with 30 years of experience at the UK Met Office told the BBC such temperatures had always been considered impossible in the UK. The country is not equipped to deal with it.
“Nobody alive has seen a temperature of 40°C in the UK”, another senior meteorologist pointed out. “That would be a hot day this time of year in Dallas or Houston, much less London.”
Londoners are warned to avoid the city’s “tube” underground railway system unless travel is absolutely necessary.
Professor Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, told the Guardian newspaper: “I think that assuming the weather forecasts are roughly correct, it’s very likely that there will be hundreds or thousands of excess deaths from the heat in the next few days ….”
The Red Extreme heat national severe weather warning will cover Monday and Tuesday (18 and 19 July) for parts of central, northern, eastern and southeastern England. An Amber Extreme heat warning, has been in place for much of England and Wales for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (17 – 19 July) since last week. Yesterday, the amber areas were extended to cover Cornwall, west Wales and parts of southern Scotland.
MEANWHILE, wildfires of the sort usually associated with Australia or California are sweeping through Europe.
Fires are tearing through huge areas of southwestern France popular with tourists, where more than 14,000 people have been evacuated, as well as Portugal and Spain. Spanish firefighters last week were battling massive blazes after days of temperatures that soared to 45.7C. Fires have also hit Greece, Croatia and Hungary.
This is the latest dangerous heatwave to smite Europe in recent decades. In August 2003 a summer heatwave became so intense it is estimated to have killed up to 70,000 people across Europe before it abated.
The current heatwave may prove even worse, depending on its duration. Scientists say climate change – largely due to human-induced global heating – is a major contributor.
In a parallel development, 15 November 2022 is predicted to be the day that the world’s human population reaches 8 billion, according to the United Nations.
Over the past century, world population has increased faster than ever before.
It took all of human history for the world’s population to reach one billion, which happened around the year 1800. The second billion was added in just 130 years (by 1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).
Written by Peter Needham
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