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Today, Adobe has released its online shopping predictions for the 2019 holiday season, powered by Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s AI and machine learning technology. Based on Adobe Analytics data, overall U.S online sales are expected to increase by 14.1%, totaling to USD$143.7 billion, while total retail shopping (offline and online), will rise by 4%.

1 out of 5 dollars this holiday season will be spent during Cyber Week – between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday – generating $29 billion (or 20%) of total online revenue this season. Adobe predicts Cyber Monday to set new records as the largest and fastest growing online shopping day of the year, with $9.4 billion in sales, an 18.9% increase year over year.

The most anticipated gifts of the holiday season includes game consoles such as Nintendo Switch Lite and SEGA Genesis Mini, and the most popular video games are expected to include Pokémon Shield/Sword, Jedi Fallen Order and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.

Additional predictions include:

  • Best days for deals: Black Friday will be the day to pick up the best discounts on appliances (discounted by 9%) and sporting goods (6%). December 1st will be the key deal day for toys (32%) and computers (18%). Cyber Monday (December 2nd) will see the deepest discounts on TVs (19%) while furniture & bedding (10%) and tools & home improvement items (6 percent) will be the categories offering the best savings on December 3rd. December 27th is the day to wait for electronics bargains, offering up massive savings of 27%.
  • A shopping mall in your pocket: Americans will spend $14 billion more on their smartphones compared to last year, accounting for 36% of all online sales, a 20% increase in share YoY, and 57% of visits, an eleven percent increase YoY. With retailers optimizing for mobile, online spend on smartphones will increase from 30 to 47 cents per minute, a 63% jump since 2016. Consumers will continue to use desktops to make research-heavy purchases like furniture, electronics and appliances, resulting in a 28% higher AOV than on smartphones.
  • A BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) bonanza: BOPIS orders have experienced strong growth, with 39% more BOPIS orders expected to be placed this year compared to 2018​. BOPIS share of revenue is anticipated to double​ during the week before Christmas as panic buying sets in. Thirty-seven percent of consumers said they are planning to use BOPIS this season while 82% of BOPIS patrons say they will likely shop for additional items when picking up their online order.
  • Larger retailers win the retail battle: While online giants will see revenue increase by 65%, smaller retailers will only enjoy a 35% boost. Large retailers (annual online revenue of over $1B) will be the clear winners on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with smaller retailers (less than $50M annual online revenue) failing to drive strong online traction despite the growing awareness of Small Business Saturday. Additionally, large retailers will benefit from higher conversion rates, with customers visiting their sites 32% more likely to convert versus smaller retailers (23%).
  • Mad for ads: 50% of consumers state that ads during the holiday shopping season impact their purchasing decisions​ while email continues to be the most preferred way to get an offer while holiday shopping. Smartphone visits to retail sites from social media have tripled in the past three years from 4% to 11%. However, visits coming from social platforms result in lower conversions compared to other channels like search or email.