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The radical new Covid-response plan by the Australian government, which will slash commercial inbound passenger arrivals by 50% from current caps by next week, has raised the serious possibility that major airlines may withdraw from serving Australia.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed on Friday that by 14 July, the number of international arrivals to Australia will be cut in half to about 3000 passengers a week, and probably held at that level until early 2022. It’s part of a four-stage National Plan to reduce pressure on quarantine facilities.

While it’s a relief to finally see a plan, the stance, dubbed ‘Fortress Australia’ by some media outlets, will see Australia clamp down further on international travel, even as some other countries are opening up.

For international airlines, this is likely to be a step too far. The Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA), which represents 33 major international carriers, has warned that some airlines may soon have no choice but to suspend services to Australia. Maintaining scheduled commercial services for so few passengers is marginal economically.

Executive Traveller quoted a media statement in which BARA executive director Barry Abrams said that some airlines were facing a point “where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time”.

Australia’s National Cabinet agreed in-principle on Friday to the new National Plan, which consists of the following phases, each triggered by the achievement of vaccination thresholds expressed as a percentage of the eligible population (aged 16+). The federal government says this is based on scientific modelling currently being conducted for Australia’s Covid-19 Risk Analysis and Response Task Force.

    A.   Current Phase – Vaccinate, prepare and pilot

Air travel in the Covid era. Photo by Peter Needham © July 2021

Continue to suppress the virus for the purpose of minimising community transmission.

Measures include:

  • Implement the national vaccination plan to offer every Australian an opportunity to be vaccinated with the necessary doses of the relevant vaccine as soon as possible;
  • Temporarily reduce commercial inbound passenger arrivals to all major ports by 50 per cent from current caps by 14 July to reduce the pressure on quarantine facilities, due to the increased risks of the Delta strain of the virus;
  • Lockdowns to be used only as a last resort;
  • Commonwealth to facilitate increased commercial flights to increase international repatriations to Darwin for quarantine at the National Resilience Facility at Howard Springs;
  • Commonwealth to extend additional support through the International Freight Assistance Mechanism to ensure maintenance of essential freight supply lines impacted by the reduction of commercial caps at international airports;
  • Trial and pilot the introduction of alternative quarantine options, including home quarantine for returning vaccinated travellers;
  • Expand commercial trials for limited entry of student and economic visa holders;
  • Recognise and adopt the existing digital Medicare Vaccination Certificate (automatically generated for every vaccination registered on AIR);
  • Establish digital vaccination authentication at international borders;
  • Prepare the vaccine booster program; and
  • Undertake a further review of the national hotel quarantine network.

    B.   Post Vaccination Phase

Seek to minimise serious illness, hospitalisation and fatality as a result of Covid-19.

Measures may include:

  • Ease restrictions on vaccinated residents – such as lockdowns and border controls;
  • Lockdowns only in extreme circumstances to prevent escalating hospitalisation and fatality;
  • Restore inbound passengers caps at previous levels for unvaccinated returning travellers and larger caps for vaccinated returning travellers;
  • Allow capped entry of student and economic visa holders subject to quarantine arrangements and availability;
  • Introduce new reduced quarantine arrangements for vaccinated residents; and
  • Prepare/implement the vaccine booster programme (depending on timing).

    C.   Consolidation Phase

Manage Covid-19 consistent with public health management of other infectious diseases.

Measures may include:

  • No lockdowns;
  • Continue vaccine booster program;
  • Exempt vaccinated residents from all domestic restrictions;
  • Abolish caps on returning vaccinated travellers;
  • Allow increased capped entry of student, economic, and humanitarian visa holders;
  • Lift all restrictions on outbound travel for vaccinated persons; and
  • Extend travel bubble for unrestricted travel to new candidate countries (Singapore, Pacific).

    D.   Final Phase

Manage Covid-19 consistent with public health management of other infectious diseases.

Measures may include:

  • Allow uncapped inbound arrivals for all vaccinated persons, without quarantine; and
  • Allow uncapped arrivals of non-vaccinated travellers subject to pre-flight and on arrival testing.

National Cabinet agreed that the Covid-19 Risk Analysis and Response Task Force be tasked to make recommendations on finalising the plan, including recommended vaccination targets for each phase of the plan based on the modelling.

Phases will continue to maintain simple risk mitigation and prevention measures such as hygiene, tracing and testing.

Written by Peter Needham