Don’t speak too soon, but New Zealand appears to be on the brink of beating its outbreak of Covid-19 Delta variant. In the meantime, keep the bubbles on hold – and in particular the trans-Tasman travel bubble, as Air New Zealand has lost the taste for it.
The days of unvaccinated travellers flying the Tasman are over.
Yesterday, New Zealand reported just 15 new cases of Covid-19 Delta in the community, all of them in Auckland and seven of them in one family. Today (Thursday 9 September) the number had fallen to 13. Daily numbers of cases are trending downwards as the outbreak (which was sparked by an infected traveller from Sydney) responds to the right treatment.
In contrast, New South Wales yesterday recorded 1480 new cases and nine deaths, including a man in his 20s. Numbers of cases in NSW are trending upwards with NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian warning worse is to come and saying NSW must learn to live with Covid.
Vaccinations are vital in both jurisdictions and it’s essential not to “let Covid rip” – certainly not before the population is adequately vaccinated.
A study published this year shows that the best-performing economies have been those that have opted for eliminating Covid, rather than deciding to live with it.
While nobody wants to declare premature victory in the battle against Delta, least of all New Zealand, the fact remains that Jacinda Ardern’s “go hard and go early” lockdown approach seems to be working. Despite what some Australian politicians and media outlets would have us believe, perhaps Delta isn’t invincible and outbreaks don’t necessarily mean you have to “live with” the virus. Ask Western Australia.
As for NSW, the Delta variant originally entered Sydney in mid-June via infected air crew, who – in an appalling blunder – transmitted it to an airport limousine driver, who then spread it further. It has since been exported to other Australian states – and to New Zealand.
NSW, which has constantly shifted its Covid strategy, has been by far the worst hit, with 37,535 cases since the outbreak began. As of yesterday, there were 1136 Covid-19 cases admitted to hospital in NSW, including 194 people in intensive care, of whom 78 are on ventilators.
Which brings us to the trans-Tasman travel bubble. This was successful until its suspension in June after Covid broke out in Sydney. For obvious reasons, Air New Zealand is in no hurry to reinstate the travel bubble.
Some insights into the airline’s thinking on the matter were delivered recently in a discussion involving its chief executive Greg Foran and its chief financial officer Richard Thomson.
Air New Zealand chief executive Greg Foran. Photo: Air New Zealand
Air New Zealand chief executive Greg Foran
“I think a bubble is quite an interesting concept and I am not convinced in my own mind that we are going to see too many more bubbles or even a return to bubbles. And the reason I make that distinction is that a bubble makes it quite a seamless experience for a customer. You are not having to do a pre-departure test. You are not having to prove you have been vaccinated. And there was a sense, certainly after a couple of weeks that it probably was going to be reasonably safe.
“I am not sure that even in a few months that Australia becomes a bubble again. I do think that we open up to Australia, but in all likelihood we may end up operating Australia like we do with many countries where we feel travel is safe. And that is, I can imagine, you are probably going to have to be vaccinated. You are probably going have to do a pre-departure test. You are probably going to have to agree to some testing at designated clinics at set intervals. When you arrive, you are probably going have to do a test on the way home and you are probably going to have to do a test when you arrive back in the country.”
Air New Zealand flight approaches Auckland. Photo by Peter Needham. © July 2021
Air New Zealand chief financial officer Richard Thomson
“It will be wee bit different this time just because of the sentiment, if you like, around Delta. But speaking from the experience for the last six months, as we saw the Tasman open up and the Cook [Islands]. I think there was probably an expectation prior to that there was this concept of pent-up demand and that you would have an avalanche of travellers who are looking to get back on the plane almost immediately as these bubbles reopened.
“It’s not really what we saw. What we saw there was a short sharp spike in what we call the VFR or visiting friends and relatives markets. So these were family members that hadn’t seen each other for a long time and they were very quick to book and get on the plane. The balance of the market, the leisure market, to a lesser extent the corporate market just started to book relatively normally. So relatively normal booking volumes.
“I think I mentioned previously, we saw a stronger rebound in demand out of Australia than we did out of New Zealand. I think it’s fair to say, but the booking profiles were relatively similar. And what I mean by that is people outside of the VFR markets weren’t booking on a Wednesday to travel on a Friday. They were booking on a Wednesday to travel two months, three months later than that.”
Written by Peter Needham
