Spread the love

The next big win in aviation services may come not from selling jets, but from keeping them in the air. Spare parts, skilled crews, and smart tools could turn the work behind each flight into a major business.

Airbus says the global aviation services market could top US$420 billion a year by 2045. The figure comes from its new Global Services Forecast. That is about twice the US$209 billion value it puts on the market in 2026. The aircraft maker expects annual growth of 3.8%.

There will be plenty of jets to look after. Airbus sees a world fleet of 45,550 by 2045. It also sees almost 10 billion passenger trips each year.

That is a lot of boarding passes. It also means many engines must start on time.

Maintenance takes the lion’s share

Forget the glamour of first class. The biggest money in this forecast lies where few passengers venture: the workshop.

This is work on engines and parts taken off aircraft for repair. Airbus says such off-wing work could be worth US$217 billion a year by 2045. That would make it the largest slice of the services market.

Airbus also sees US$104 billion for maintenance operations support. That means parts supply and expert help to keep fleets safe. On-wing checks could be worth a further US$36 billion.

Airlines cannot afford to treat such work as an afterthought. An aircraft on the ground earns little, even if its cabin looks splendid.

The forecast also puts aircraft upgrades and modifications at US$21 billion. Older jets will need new cabins, fresh systems and a longer useful life. Not every airline can solve its problems by ordering a shiny new fleet.

The digital race gathers speed

The fastest growth, though, may come from a less visible source.

Airbus says digital services and connectivity could triple in value. This market could reach US$27 billion a year by 2045, growing 5.3 per cent a year.

Better data can help airlines spot faults early, plan repairs and respond to delays. Connected cabins can also improve the passenger experience.

For travellers, the prize is simple: fewer disrupted trips and more flights that leave when the timetable says they should. Nobody books a holiday for the thrill of a maintenance report.

Still, software cannot mend an engine by itself. That brings the industry to its next challenge.

Aviation faces a vast hiring task

By 2045, the industry will need to find and train 2.44 million aviation staff, Airbus says. That covers new roles and staff to replace those who leave.

Its forecast includes 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew. The annual training market alone could reach US$17 billion by 2045.

Those figures are as much a warning as an opportunity. New aircraft are of little use without people to fly, maintain and staff them.

Cristina Aguilar Grieder, Airbus’s senior vice-president of customer services for commercial aircraft, summed up the scale of the task:

“As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready.”

Asia’s rise puts Australia in the picture

Europe, North America and China will remain big markets, Airbus says. Its study groups Europe with the Commonwealth of Independent States. Growth should be fastest across Asia, including China, South Asia and the wider Asia-Pacific.

That matters for Australia. More air travel in the region could mean fresh business for local repair firms, training schools and service suppliers.

It could also bring stiffer competition for qualified staff. Airlines and workshops will need to plan well in advance. A skills gap cannot be fixed with a last-minute gate change.

Airbus, of course, wants a slice of the boom. Reuters reports that it aims to earn more than US$10 billion from commercial aircraft services by 2030. Selling an aircraft is only the start of a long business relationship.

Any forecast has limits. These figures are estimates, not firm sales or confirmed hiring plans. Aircraft output, costs, supply chains and world events could all change the pace.

The Airbus study covers large passenger jets and cargo aircraft from all makers. It is not limited to Airbus aircraft. Its message is clear: aviation’s next great test will be as much about maintaining aircraft and protecting people as building new planes.

The world may be ready to fly twice as much. The question is whether the industry can keep up.