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The business jet market is not merely holding altitude in a world of economic turbulence, geopolitical shocks, costly fuel and the occasional supply-chain headache. It is quietly climbing.

Global Jet Capital’s sixth annual Business Jet Market Outlook 2026–2030 forecasts continued growth across both new and pre-owned aircraft, underpinned by stronger manufacturer backlogs, increasing flight activity and persistent demand for the flexibility, privacy and reach that business aviation provides.

And the numbers are anything but pocket change.

Global Jet Capital expects 4,533 new business jet deliveries valued at $130.7 billion between 2026 and 2030. It separately forecasts 15,158 pre-owned transactions worth $116.8 billion during the same period. Add those forecasts together and the market is looking at roughly 19,691 transactions carrying a combined value of about $247.5 billion over five years.

That is not exactly loose change found between the cushions of a Gulfstream.

For the wider travel and aviation industry, the report matters because business aviation is increasingly part of a much broader premium-mobility ecosystem. Whole-aircraft owners now sit alongside fractional operators, jet-card customers, charter users and businesses looking for faster access to markets that commercial airline schedules cannot always deliver conveniently.

The pandemic may have introduced a new audience to private aviation, but Global Jet Capital’s numbers suggest something more durable is taking shape.

2026 keeps the market climbing

Global Jet Capital forecasts total new and pre-owned business jet transaction unit volume will increase 3.6 per cent in 2026, while transaction dollar volume is projected to rise 5.5 per cent.

Based on the report’s market tables, the industry is forecast to record 3,725 transactions in 2026, comprising 853 new deliveries and 2,872 pre-owned transactions. By 2030, that annual total is expected to reach 4,122 transactions.

Dollar volume tells an equally compelling story. The total market is projected at about $45.6 billion in 2026, rising to $52.8 billion in 2030.

Across the forecast period, transaction unit volume is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent, while dollar volume rises faster, at 4.1 per cent.

That difference is significant. The industry is not simply selling more aircraft. More money is moving toward higher-value jets, particularly in the heavy and medium categories.

The backdrop is unusually strong considering the geopolitical environment.

Global Jet Capital notes that business jet departures had risen beyond one million in Q2 2026, while OEM backlogs had climbed to $66.8 billion. Aircraft available for sale represented about 6.6 per cent of a worldwide fleet exceeding 25,000 aircraft, still considerably below the historical 10 per cent average.

Global Jet Capital’s separate Q2 market brief also reports that departures increased 3.4 per cent year-on-year during the first half of 2026, while OEM backlogs reached $66.8 billion.

Put simply: more aircraft are flying, manufacturers have substantial orders waiting, and second-hand supply remains relatively tight.

New jets: order books are doing the heavy lifting

New business jet deliveries increased 12.8 per cent in 2025, reaching 826 aircraft, and Global Jet Capital expects another 3.3 per cent rise in 2026, taking deliveries to 853.

New-aircraft dollar volume is forecast to increase considerably faster this year by 7.4 per cent, with heavy jets providing a substantial part of the increase.

Plenty is in the pipeline.

Backlogs increased 10.2 per cent between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025, then rose another 12.8 per cent during the following six months, reaching $66.8 billion by mid-2026.

Supply-chain problems have not disappeared, but Global Jet Capital says the constraints are becoming less systemic, while manufacturers have developed strategies to manage them.

That should produce something the aviation industry has occasionally found elusive: orderly growth.

Manufacturers are expected to lift production without flooding the market, working through significant backlogs while maintaining what the report describes as disciplined output.

It is, frankly, a rather more agreeable problem than having acres of factory floor and nobody waiting outside with a cheque book.

Bigger jets are gaining altitude

One of the most telling elements of the forecast is where buyers are putting their money.

Heavy and medium jets are expected to gain market share during the next five years.

Heavy-jet deliveries are forecast to rise at an average annual rate of 3.3 per cent between 2025 and 2030, while medium-jet deliveries are projected to increase by around 3 per cent annually.

Heavy jets should account for 33.6 per cent of new deliveries over the coming five years, compared with 30.2 per cent during the previous five. Medium aircraft are forecast to account for 26.5 per cent, up from 24.3 per cent.

The attraction is hardly mysterious.

Longer range, larger cabins, greater passenger capacity and a more sophisticated onboard working environment make the biggest business jets particularly attractive for international missions. New models coming into service during the forecast period should add further momentum.

Light-jet deliveries are expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 2 per cent, while very light jet production should remain broadly steady.

Growth is therefore broad across the hangar, but larger aircraft increasingly occupy the expensive end of it.

Pre-owned jets refuse to play second fiddle

While gleaming new aircraft attract photographs, the pre-owned sector remains the transaction workhorse.

Pre-owned business jet transactions surged 16.3 per cent in 2025, reaching 2,771 aircraft. The first quarter of 2026 appeared weaker by comparison, but Global Jet Capital says that largely reflected an unusually active Q1 2025, when some purchasers brought transactions forward ahead of expected US tariffs.

Reporting delays also affected the early-2026 numbers.

By the second quarter, transaction volumes were again up year on year. Global Jet Capital consequently forecasts pre-owned unit volume to rise 3.6 per cent for 2026, with dollar volume increasing 3.5 per cent.

Over five years, pre-owned transaction numbers are expected to grow at an annualised rate of 2.9 per cent, while their dollar value advances faster at 4.2 per cent.

And here, too, buyers appear to be looking towards opposite ends of the aircraft-size spectrum.

Very light jet transactions are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 5.3 per cent through 2030, helped by increasing interest in personal jets.

Heavy pre-owned jets are forecast to grow at 4.9 per cent annually, substantially ahead of the broader second-hand market. They are expected to account for 28.2 per cent of transactions over the next five years, compared with 25.5 per cent during the previous five-year period.

By 2030, the forecast calls for 944 pre-owned heavy-jet transactions, up from 745 in 2025.

North America remains firmly in the cockpit

Geographically, business aviation retains a distinctly North American accent.

Global Jet Capital expects North America to account for a formidable 73.9 per cent of worldwide business jet transactions between 2026 and 2030.

The forecast calls for 3,241 new-aircraft transactions and 11,325 pre-owned transactions across North America during the five years. Nearly three-quarters of all forecast pre-owned business jet transactions worldwide are expected to occur there.

Latin America is forecast to be the second-largest market, accounting for 12.1 per cent of global transactions, with pre-owned aircraft making up approximately 82.6 per cent of transactions within that region.

Europe is forecast to represent 7.2 per cent of global business jet transactions.

Asia-Pacific and the Middle East/Africa are considerably smaller, but Global Jet Capital identifies both as important growth opportunities. It specifically highlights South and Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf, where decades of wealth creation are helping expand the business aviation customer base.

The report’s regional map forecasts 200 new and 462 pre-owned aircraft transactions in Asia-Pacific between 2026 and 2030.

For Australian readers, one qualification matters: Australia is not forecast separately in the report. It would therefore be misleading to turn the Asia-Pacific numbers into an Australian market forecast.

The figures do show that this region remains comparatively small compared with North America, while still offering considerable headroom for business aviation growth.

Why travellers continue paying for time

Perhaps the report’s most persuasive argument is not about luxury at all.

It is about time.

In his preface, Global Jet Capital’s Andrew Farrant describes business aviation as offering “safe, productive, efficient, and flexible access to global travel”.

That is the industry’s central proposition in nine words.

Business jets cannot and do not replace commercial airlines for the overwhelming majority of travellers. Instead, they operate in a narrower, high-value segment where reaching several cities in a day, accessing airports without regular scheduled service, protecting sensitive discussions or retaining control over an itinerary may have considerable commercial value.

Demand suggests users continue to see that value.

The report says business jet departures increased 5 per cent during 2025, followed by another 3.4 per cent increase during the first half of 2026.

For operators, financiers, airports and premium-travel suppliers, those flying hours matter every bit as much as aircraft sales.

A forecast, not a crystal ball

Global Jet Capital is sensibly careful about forecasting’s limitations.

Its projections use a top-down linear regression model based on economic and industry variables, with economic data and forecasts supplied by Oxford Economics. The company then balances the statistical output against its own market knowledge and analysis.

The company specifically warns that unforeseen events could produce very different outcomes.

Downside risks include deteriorating geopolitical conditions, disruption to oil transportation, trade interruptions, recession, continuing shortages of available aircraft, OEM supply-chain problems and stronger-than-expected environmental regulation.

Upside risks include easing geopolitical conflict, stronger economic growth and quicker resolution of supply-chain and labour constraints.

There is good reason for such caution.

Global Jet Capital had forecast the 2025 new-aircraft market at $20.1 billion; the final figure reached $22.5 billion. Its pre-owned forecast of $18.6 billion similarly came in below the eventual $20.7 billion result.

Manufacturers overcame production constraints faster than anticipated, while demand and lengthy waiting lists pushed more purchasers into used aircraft.

Forecasting aviation, as always, remains a profession in which humility ought to be included with the standard equipment.

A quarter-trillion-dollar runway

Allow for those risks and the central message of Global Jet Capital’s outlook remains remarkably difficult to miss.

Business jet utilisation is rising. Manufacturer backlogs are strong. Production is recovering. Pre-owned activity has regained momentum. Larger aircraft are taking an increasing share of market value.

And North America, the undisputed heavyweight of business aviation, appears in no hurry to relinquish the title.

For aircraft manufacturers and financiers, those trends mean orders and transactions.

For airports and FBOs, they mean movements, fuel, parking and services.

For charter companies and fractional operators, they mean customers increasingly accustomed to buying access to aircraft without necessarily buying the aircraft itself.

And for destinations chasing high-spending corporate and private travellers, they are another reminder that premium aviation has become a consequential part of the international travel economy.

If Global Jet Capital’s forecast lands close to the mark, nearly 20,000 new and pre-owned business jet transactions worth approximately $247.5 billion will pass through the market between 2026 and 2030.

In an industry accustomed to turbulence, that is one sizeable runway.

The full Global Jet Capital Business Jet Market Outlook 2026–2030 and its headline forecasts are available from the company’s official forecast page, Global Jet Capital 2026–2030 Forecast.