Brand USA has cut its 2026 visitor forecast. It has not cut its ambition.
That was the clear message from its public board meeting on 23 July 2026. The meeting came at a key moment for US tourism.
The United States had just co-hosted the FIFA World Cup. Canada and Mexico were its partners. America had also marked 250 years since independence. Route 66 was in its centennial year. Its official 100th birthday falls on 11 November 2026.
The calendar offered many good reasons to travel. The latest arrival data was less festive.
Tourism Economics now expects 69.9 million international arrivals in 2026. Its March forecast was 70.6 million. Expected growth has also fallen from 3.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent.
Chelsea Benitez, Brand USA’s senior director of research and analytics, put it plainly: “The revision is largely the forecast catching up with the actual data.”
In other words, the forecast now looks more like the market.
First-half arrivals lose ground
The July presentation showed 15.2 million overseas arrivals through June. That was down 4 per cent year on year. Total international arrivals were down by about 3 per cent.
The terms are not the same. In US tourism data, “overseas” excludes Canada and Mexico. “International” includes both countries.
Tourism Economics raised its view for 42 markets. It lowered the outlook for 139.
Mexico received the largest lift. Colombia, Ecuador, Türkiye, Japan and Taiwan also moved up. The biggest cuts hit Canada, South Korea, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
The World Cup helped, but its effect was uneven.
June arrivals from competing nations rose 2 per cent. Arrivals from countries outside the tournament fell 7 per cent.
Football filled seats and drew the world’s gaze. It did not fix every weak market.
The long-term outlook is brighter. Tourism Economics expects about 85 million arrivals by 2030.
The US National Travel and Tourism Office has its own forecast. It expects 70.5 million arrivals in 2026. It sees 85.2 million by 2030.
Those figures are close, but not the same. The forecasts use different models and release dates. They are planning tools, not promises set in stone.
Canada moves to the front of the queue
Brand USA’s clearest next move is aimed at Canada.
A new consumer campaign will launch in the northern autumn. It follows a hard year for cross-border travel. Canadian trips to the United States fell by more than 20 per cent in 2025.
Trade strain and political tension hurt demand. Public feeling also turned colder. For many Canadians, a US holiday no longer felt like the easy choice.
Brand USA now believes the time is right to return.
Chief marketing officer Leah Chandler said, “the timing is now right to re-enter Canada with a brand message”.
The campaign will focus on digital media. It will target younger people and likely travellers. Online behaviour will help find those most open to a US trip.
Brand USA also used surveys and focus groups in Canada. That work helped shape the campaign.
This is not a broad blast of flags and fireworks. It is a tight sales pitch aimed at people who may still book.
Tourism Economics expects Canada to send 16.7 million visitors in 2026. That would be growth of close to 4 per cent. Even so, the figure is about 300,000 below the March view.
The trade will get its own push.
Brand USA Travel Week Canada is set for 26 to 29 October 2026. Events will take place in Toronto and Montreal. The program builds on the former Canada Connect event.
US partners will gain more time with buyers and media. Agents should gain better access to new-product and firm-level facts.
In a soft market, knowledge is not window dressing. It is part of the sale.
Australia stays valuable, despite a weak start
Australia remains a key long-haul market for Brand USA.
In February, Brand USA forecast a 5 per cent rise in Australian visits. It expected the full-year total to pass one million.
The July data told a more cautious story.
Australia produced 438,052 arrivals from January to June. That was down 6 per cent on the first half of 2025.
The full-year forecast may still be reached. Demand would need to improve in the second half. The weaker start should still be clear to readers and the trade.
Australian visitors remain highly prized. They often stay longer than short-haul guests. They also spend across many parts of a trip.
That value spreads well beyond the main gateways. Regional towns, parks, tour firms, hotels and attractions can all gain.
Brand USA has kept close ties with the local trade.
Its Sydney event brought together 46 US partners and 57 buyers. Those buyers came from 37 groups. Events in Auckland and Christchurch linked 37 US exhibitors with more than 260 agents and media guests.
Its ambassador program also grew. The number of places in Australia and New Zealand rose from 12 to 30. This supports a wider goal of 250 trade ambassadors.
Ads may start the dream. A skilled agent turns it into flights, rooms and tours. Better still, the agent turns it into a deposit.
A bigger task on a smaller budget
Brand USA is trying to lift demand with far less support.
Its federal match fell from US$100 million to US$20 million. Its FY2026 budget dropped from US$252 million to US$157.8 million.
The cuts removed 12 roles. That was about 15 per cent of staff. Brand USA also closed GoUSA TV. Its main campaign reached fewer markets than before.
That is no light trim around the edges. It is like hosting the same feast with fewer chairs and a smaller pantry.
The July meeting also set out a proposed FY2027 budget. The total was US$165 million.
The plan included US$20 million from the Travel Promotion Fund. It also had US$30 million in partner cash. Sponsorship and other income added US$900,000.
The largest item was a planned US$114.1 million draw from surplus funds. That shows how much Brand USA may need its reserves.
Even so, the group says its campaign is working.
More than seven in 10 surveyed consumers in paid-media markets said America the Beautiful raised their interest in visiting.
The wider platform now has two useful support acts.
American Originals sells US food, music, culture, people and places. Get Facts. Get Going. gives clear advice on visas, fees and border rules.
One builds desire. The other tries to stop doubt from killing the booking.
Brand USA president and chief executive Fred Dixon made the aim clear in May. He said: “We want international visitors to know that we are open for business and warmly welcome them.”
The date matters. Dixon made the remark when the new campaign work was launched. It was not a quote from the July board meeting.
His point still goes to the heart of the task.
The United States has no shortage of things to sell. It has great cities, vast parks, live sport and famous road trips. It also has food, music and shows with global pull.
Yet price, policy and visa rules shape each choice. So do exchange rates, world events and public views.
Marketing cannot remove every concern. It can give people sound facts. It can make the welcome clear. It can also help agents answer hard questions.
Why the meeting matters
The July meeting was not a victory lap. It was not a funeral march. It was a reset.
The new forecast showed the limits of major events. The World Cup helped some markets, but not all. Canada needs care. Parts of Europe and Asia remain soft.
Australia is still of high value. Yet its first-half result was weak.
Brand USA also has a long record to defend.
It says its work over 13 years brought 11.3 million extra visitors. Those guests spent US$38.1 billion. The group puts the total economic impact at US$82.9 billion.
Brand USA also links its work to almost US$11 billion in tax income. It says the activity supported more than 40,000 jobs on average each year.
These are Brand USA’s own estimates. They still explain why the funding fight matters.
Foreign guests bring export income into US towns and cities. They spend on rooms, food, tours, shops and shows. They also buy flights, hire cars and use local transport.
Then they go home. The roads, parks and hotels remain for the next guest.
The board’s message was sober, but not weak.
Brand USA plans to use sharper ads and better data. It wants closer trade links and clearer facts for travellers. Canada will get urgent care. Australia will stay central to the wider plan.
The group will also continue to make a simple case. Tourism marketing is not a pretty extra. It is an economic tool.
The 2026 forecast has lost some height. The seatbelt sign is on. That is not the same as a landing call.
By: Jason Smith – © 2026.
Read Time: 7 minutes.
Author Bio:
Jason Smith didn’t learn travel from textbooks. He learned it in airports, taxis and hotel lobbies, watching the business unfold long before he played his own part. Half American, half Asian, he grew up around the quiet workings of tourism, where people come and go, and stories rarely stand still.
Bangkok came first, then formal study, then a career that carried him through Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam. Each place left something behind. In the end, Thailand felt like home, and I took on a senior role in hotel sales.
Then everything stopped. Borders shut, planes grounded, and Jason found himself back in America with time to reflect.
Now at Global Travel Media, he writes travel as it really is, not polished, not perfect, but human, and all the better for it.
