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Boeing has placed a vast figure on aviation’s next growth cycle. It expects the global commercial support and services market to reach US$4.9 trillion by 2045. It also says airlines will need 2.425 million new pilots, technicians and cabin crew members.

The numbers come from Boeing’s 2026 Commercial Services Market Outlook and its Pilot and Technician Outlook. Together, they show that aviation’s next challenge involves far more than buying new aircraft.

Airlines will also need people, parts, training, data tools and enough workshop space to keep those aircraft in service. A jet without a crew or a spare part is not much use. It is simply a very costly winged ornament.

Boeing expects passenger traffic to double between 2026 and 2045. It says the global commercial fleet will grow by almost 80 per cent to more than 50,000 aircraft. Operators are forecast to require 43,625 new aircraft deliveries during that period.

About half of those aircraft will replace older jets. The remainder will support industry growth.

Services Step Into the Spotlight

The US$4.9 trillion aviation services market has a wide reach. It includes maintenance, repair and overhaul work. It also covers aircraft upgrades, spare parts, supply chains, professional training and digital services.

That work will become increasingly important as airlines face delays in new aircraft and engine deliveries. Parts remain scarce in some areas, while skilled staff are also difficult to find.

Those pressures may force airlines to keep older aircraft flying for longer. Ageing fleets often require more inspections, repairs and upgrades. That gives maintenance and supply companies more work, but it also places additional strain on already busy hangars.

Digital tools will play a larger role as well. Boeing expects more than 90 per cent of the global fleet to be digitally enabled by 2045. Airlines will use aircraft data to identify faults earlier, plan repairs, and reduce delays.

The goal is simple: find the problem before passengers find the departure board.

“As we look toward the future, we see strong demand for services across the portfolio, new opportunities as fleets become more digitally enabled and a growing need for a skilled workforce,” said Chris Raymond, president and CEO of Boeing Global Services. “To meet those needs we will continue to digitally modernize our business and invest in skilled people and customer-focused improvements to keep aircraft flying safely and efficiently for years to come.”

The Workforce Gap Is the Real Test

Boeing forecasts demand for 674,000 new pilots, 728,000 maintenance technicians and 1.023 million cabin crew members over the next 20 years.

About two-thirds of the total will replace people who leave the industry, mainly through retirement. The remaining third will support fleet growth.

That division matters. Aviation must replace decades of skill and experience while continuing to expand. New aircraft and digital systems will change the nature of the work, but they will not remove the need for sound training and good judgement.

Boeing says competency-based training and immersive technology can help. These tools can give students more hands-on practice and improve situational awareness in complex environments.

They are useful tools, not magic wands. A headset may help teach the lesson. It cannot sign the licence.

“Our industry will keep the expanding global fleet flying safely and efficiently by investing in workforce development worldwide,” said Chris Broom, Vice President, Commercial Training Solutions, Boeing Global Services. “Immersive technologies will enhance training, supporting Competency-Based Training and Assessment approaches to ensure the highest quality aviation training.”

Oceania Has 41,000 Reasons to Act

Eurasia has the largest forecast demand for new workers, at 571,000. North America follows with 438,000, while China is expected to need 425,000.

Southeast Asia is forecast to require 258,000 people, while the Middle East will need 236,000.

For Oceania, Boeing projects demand for 11,000 pilots, 12,000 technicians and 18,000 cabin crew members. That amounts to 41,000 new aviation workers. The region’s support and services market is valued at US$85 billion through 2045.

For Australia, the message is clear. Workforce planning cannot remain in the “deal with it later” tray.

Airlines, airports, colleges and engineering firms will need stronger training pipelines. They will need more apprentices, instructors and pathways into regional aviation. They will also need to retain experienced staff within the industry.

There is a commercial prize on offer, too. Australian maintenance firms, training providers and aviation technology businesses could secure more work across the region. Southeast Asia’s growth may create strong demand for nearby technical expertise and support services.

A Forecast, Not a Guarantee

Boeing’s outlook is a forecast, not a boarding pass stamped “confirmed”. The company says its long-term projections depend on numerous assumptions. Economic conditions, regulation, supply chains and aircraft availability may all affect the final outcome.

Even so, the broad direction is difficult to ignore.

Airlines may order the jets. Banks may finance them. Manufacturers may build them. But trained people and reliable services will keep them flying.

The next aviation boom will be won in cockpits, cabins, hangars, classrooms and parts warehouses. Preferably, it will be won before someone discovers that the vital component is still sitting on the other side of the world.