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Qantas is cruising through a pocket of market turbulence, with strong passenger demand and a steady loyalty arm helping to offset the usual fuel-price crosswinds that make life at 30,000 feet financially enjoyable.

In its November 2025 market update, the Qantas Group reaffirmed that it’s on course to meet the guidance outlined in August’s FY25 results, though a few adjustments have been made to altitude and trim.

Domestic unit revenue is expected to climb around 3 per cent in the first half of FY26, marking the lower end of previous forecasts, a sign that while Australians are still travelling, they’re perhaps spending more time in regional lounges than in corporate boardrooms. Leisure, small business, and resource-sector demand remain robust, but non-resource corporate travel is showing a slower rate of recovery.

Jetstar’s domestic business, however, continues to hum along, buoyed by its traditional strengths: price, simplicity and a seat sale every other weekend.

International: steady as she goes

On the international front, Qantas Group’s revenue guidance remains unchanged, targeting 2-3 per cent growth in the same period. Passenger demand across key markets—the US, Asia, and Europe—remains stable, though the airline admits capacity is a touch lower than previously guided. The reason? A delay in the return of some of its iconic Airbus A380s to service the double-deckers that inspire as much nostalgia as they do fuel burn.

The Group has also been keeping an eye on the ongoing US government shutdown, a curious American ritual that tends to test the patience of both bureaucrats and travellers. So far, Qantas says there’s been “no material impact” on demand.

Qantas Loyalty, the unsung hero of the airline’s bottom line, continues to trade strongly, on track to deliver 10-12 per cent underlying EBIT growth in the first half. That’s a tidy result for a division that, in many ways, sells aspiration as much as airfares.

The cost of fuel: turbulence ahead

No Qantas update would be complete without mention of fuel, that volatile cocktail of global politics, refining margins, and the occasional maritime bottleneck. The airline expects its first-half FY26 fuel bill to come in around A$2.62 billion, assuming prices stay put at roughly A$134 a barrel.

That figure includes about $25 million in additional non-cash carbon costs, thanks to more stringent CORSIA compliance rules under the international scheme for reducing aviation emissions (IATA’s CORSIA Program).

If that sounds painful, it’s still better than unhedged chaos. Qantas continues to benefit from its hedging program and ongoing cost transformation efforts, which help buffer the effects of oil price volatility.

Jetstar Asia’s final descent

Meanwhile, Jetstar Asia, which ceased operations on 31 July 2025, is making its final descent in financial terms, with the wind-down expected to show an EBIT loss of around $30 million for the half-year.

There’s also a currency headwind from Japan, where a weak yen has chipped about $20 million off Jetstar Japan’s profits due to lease liability adjustments. It’s a timely reminder that while low-cost carriers thrive on simplicity, international accounting rarely follows suit.

Fleet, focus, and the long game.

Updated capacity guidance suggests the Group is carefully calibrating its fleet deployment against real demand and delivery schedules. The gradual reintroduction of A380s and newer aircraft like the A321XLRs underscores Qantas’ intent to keep balancing long-haul glamour with short-haul efficiency.

The airline’s longer-term strategy remains clear: reinforce the multi-brand, multi-market model, with Qantas Loyalty and Jetstar acting as dual engines of growth. With Alan Joyce’s successor, Vanessa Hudson, settling into her stride, the Group appears committed to a disciplined expansion, no wild detours, just steady flying.

In the context of an aviation sector still contending with geopolitical shocks, supply-chain lag, and unpredictable oil markets, Qantas’ message to shareholders is essentially this: the compass is steady, the course is known, and the engines are humming, albeit a little louder than usual at the bowser.

Final descent

For an airline once buffeted by political storms, pandemic hangovers, and leadership transitions, Qantas’s November update reads like a rare moment of calm skies.

The Flying Kangaroo isn’t just airborne, it’s trimming its sails, tuning its engines, and flying smart. If 2026’s first half proves as steady as the Group suggests, passengers and shareholders alike may finally enjoy some smooth cruising.