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In a move that’s rattled the global travel trade faster than a lost suitcase on a dodgy baggage carousel, Donald Trump has thrown another travel ban onto the tarmac. And just like in 2017, the tourism industry is bracing for what some are calling the sequel no one asked for: “Trump Slump 2.”

This latest set of restrictions, announced with Trump’s trademark bravado, has evoked sharp memories of the original travel ban unveiled on January 27, 2017. That particular political hand grenade didn’t just impact the seven targeted nations – Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen – it sent shockwaves through the wider tourism industry as well.

David Tarsh, Managing Director of Tarsh Consulting, was among the first to sound the alarm back then. In a release for ForwardKeys, Tarsh coined the phrase “Trump Slump,” a rather poetic way to summarise the sudden, sharp nosedive in travel interest towards the United States.

And nosedive it did. According to ForwardKeys data, within just a week of the initial ban, flight bookings from the affected countries plummeted by a staggering 80%. But here’s the kicker: the collateral damage extended far beyond those borders.

Bookings from Northern Europe dropped 6.6%, Western Europe by 13.6%, Southern Europe fell 2.9%, and the Asia-Pacific region saw a drop of 14%. The Middle East, perhaps most predictably, posted a jaw-dropping 37.5% decline.

These weren’t mere blips either. While global tourism rose by a healthy 4.6% in 2017, international arrivals to the US shrank by 1.4% overall. That may sound like small change until you consider that Europe alone accounts for nearly 40% of inbound travel to the US. European arrivals fell by 2.3%, and Asia Pacific visitors, who contribute a hefty 23% share, dropped off by 3.8%.

Now, with another travel ban on the horizon, those numbers are more than just history lessons – they’re a red flag. And Tarsh, ever the voice of reason in an often chaotic space, is once again stepping forward.

“Given what we’ve seen before, I would not be surprised if the same thing happens again,” he said. “However, this time, the recent fall in the value of the US dollar may soften the impact on US tourism exports.”

It’s a sobering reminder that tourism is an ecosystem built not just on logistics and policies, but trust. Destinations that feel unwelcoming or volatile quickly fall off the radar for holidaymakers and business travellers alike.

The broader industry, still recovering from the economic blowtorch of COVID and grappling with inflation, is understandably jittery. Travel executives will no doubt be eyeing booking patterns over the coming weeks like hawks.

The tourism sector has always been resilient, to be sure. But with politics steering the wheel again, industry leaders are hoping for less turbulence and more clarity.

As they say in aviation: buckle up, turbulence ahead.