As the wheels of global commerce turn ever more cautiously into 2025, a deep unease has settled over boardrooms, departure lounges and international meetings calendars alike. The reason? A fusillade of policy moves by the United States government—ranging from import tariffs to cross-border entry restrictions—is now casting a long shadow over the business travel landscape.
According to the latest findings from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), nearly a third of global travel managers expect a significant drop in travel volume this year. The new pulse poll, which captured sentiment from over 900 professionals across 45 countries, paints a stark picture of growing anxiety within one of the world’s most vital economic arteries—business travel.
“While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry,” said GBTA Chief Executive Suzanne Neufang, whose organisation has long been regarded as the barometer of global corporate travel health.
“Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions,” she said. “This undermines economic prosperity and damages the many sectors that rely on global business travel to survive and thrive.”
Confidence Grounded
Indeed, optimism has declined. Only 31% of global travel professionals remain hopeful for the year ahead, plummeting from a bullish 67% back in November 2024. Meanwhile, a rising tide of neutrality (40%) and pessimism speaks volumes about the growing risk calculus businesses now face in moving people across borders.
The catalysts for this souring sentiment are as political as they are practical. The GBTA survey cited an unsettling combination of policies from Washington, including sweeping tariffs on imported goods, stricter US entry restrictions for citizens of certain nations, new advisories against inbound travel to the United States, and heightened risks of detention at US borders. Add to that a noticeable drop in official US government travel spend, and it’s clear the tremors are not imagined.
For global travel buyers—the decision-makers behind who flies where and why—the forecast is becoming increasingly grim:
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29% of respondents anticipate a decline in travel volume at their companies in 2025, with an average drop of 21%.
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27% expect corporate travel spending to shrink, also by an average of 20%.
That could equate to a mammoth US$88 billion decline from the projected global spend of US$1.63 trillion.
Suppliers aren’t faring any better. More than a third (37%) of travel providers, including travel management companies (TMCS), foresee an 18% decline in travel-related revenue. And many admit they’re preparing to tighten their belts.
Policy Overreach or Economic Prudence?
As far as the corporate world is concerned, Washington’s assertiveness is bordering on overreach. Although the policies may be rooted in sovereignty and national security, their ripple effects are proving far-reaching.
“Two things we’re closely monitoring,” added Neufang, “are whether continued economic uncertainty will start eating into company budgets, and if workforce mobility to and from the US continues to tighten.”
Both variables have the potential to reshape global travel corridors, not merely detour them.
Some companies, especially those headquartered outside the US, are already drawing red lines. A combined 14% have either relocated or are considering relocating major events and meetings away from American soil. Foreign firms are three times more likely to do so than their US-based counterparts.
Corporate Caution on the Rise
The unease is also filtering down to corporate travel policies. Seven per cent of organisations have already revised their protocols for travel to or from the US since January 2025. Another 25% are contemplating doing the same.
This includes pausing travel approvals, delaying employee itineraries, or rethinking entire event strategies. As of now, 20% have either cancelled or are mulling cancellations for meetings scheduled to be held in the US.
The reasons? Beyond macroeconomics and diplomacy, it comes down to the human element. Travel buyers cited three key concerns:
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Costs – 54% fear ballooning travel expenses.
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Red tape – 46% are daunted by visa complications and added documentation.
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Traveller reluctance – 37% say employees are wary of visiting the US.
One particularly revealing data point: 23% of industry professionals personally know someone whose travel plans were impacted by US border or visa policy shifts.
Who Gets Grounded First?
Not all organisations are reacting the same way, of course. A majority—64%—say they’re holding steady with existing policies. However, with each passing week, the margin for passivity narrows.
As one travel director at a Fortune 500 firm (speaking on condition of anonymity) put it: “It’s not just about flights and bookings anymore. It’s about geopolitical stability, operational predictability, and the ability to protect staff on the move. That’s what we’re reassessing now.”
A Broader Threat to Connectivity
The impact of these policy shifts reverberates beyond airlines and hotel chains. Business travel is the lifeblood of trade missions, research partnerships, international acquisitions, and client relationships, particularly in sectors such as finance, consulting, higher education, and pharmaceuticals.
It is, as Neufang notes, a “linchpin of diplomacy, innovation and economic resilience.”
Any restriction that makes that process harder, slower, or less attractive threatens to break the fragile threads that bind global commerce. It is perhaps for this reason that some voices within the industry are calling for increased engagement, dialogue and predictability—lest the US risk becoming, ironically, more isolated in a time when connection is key.
Where to From Here?
As we approach the mid-year mark, one thing is sure: the conversation around travel isn’t just about where we’re going, but whether we can go at all. The growing unpredictability of policy—and its effects on planning, budgeting and human resources—means many companies may soon opt for the path of least resistance: staying put.
And in business, as in aviation, grounded means stagnation.
It may be time, as the old saying goes, to mind the gap—not just between countries, but between intention and execution. For now, the boarding gates remain open, but the mood is far from cruising altitude.
