Australia’s food and beverage sector is bracing for a financial battering. New modelling reveals that indirect global tariffs could deliver a staggering $765 million blow—even without a single duty being levied directly on the country’s exports. The revelation comes as homegrown tech innovator Fair Supply unveils the world’s first comprehensive global tariff calculator, a game-changing tool designed to reveal the hidden cost of modern trade warfare.
This Australian invention could not be more timely in an era defined by fractured trade alliances and retaliatory tariff tit-for-tats. Fair Supply’s proprietary calculator—grounded in an engine that maps over 60 billion supply chain pathways—gives businesses a window into the deeper, often unseen repercussions of international trade dynamics. And what it shows is sobering.
“Tariffs are no longer isolated border tolls,” says Dr Arne Geschke, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Fair Supply. “They’re embedded in the DNA of the global economy. This calculator shines a light into the shadowy corners of international trade, where costs multiply and margins quietly bleed.”
Unlike traditional models that view tariffs through a narrow, country-specific lens, Fair Supply’s tool tracks the cumulative effects of duties cascading through multiple tiers of international suppliers. The findings are alarming for Australia’s food and beverage manufacturing sector, which is already dealing with high input costs and tight global competition.
According to early modelling, while Australian exports may dodge the bullet at the customs desk, they’re far from safe. The indirect knock-on effects of tariffs imposed on secondary and tertiary suppliers across the globe are set to drive up input costs, squeeze supply chains, and blunt the sector’s competitive edge.
Dr Arne Geschke, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer at Fair Supply.
“The result? $765 million in added pressure—hidden in plain sight,” Geschke warns.
And this is only one corner of a broader battlefield. Australia’s economy could be staring down a $15 billion cumulative cost, with ripple effects set to distort pricing structures, inflate production costs, and force difficult sourcing decisions across virtually every sector.
What distinguishes the Fair Supply calculator is not only its analytical depth but also its speed. In contrast to conventional, static tools, this model updates in real time, adjusting for the latest tariff announcements—including those of the retaliatory variety. That means businesses aren’t just reacting—they’re navigating.
“Being able to anticipate a cost curve, rather than scramble after it, is the difference between survival and sacrifice in today’s trade landscape,” Dr Geschke adds.
The implications for business leaders are clear: this is not a tool for the few but a necessity for the many. Whether importing citrus concentrates or sourcing industrial packaging, the calculator offers the intelligence to sidestep procurement pitfalls and proactively pivot supply strategies.
Its functionality is as practical as it is powerful. Users input the product and country of origin, and the tool delivers a breakdown of the cumulative tariff impact to the granular level. This allows procurement teams to compare countries and weigh sourcing alternatives that could mean the difference between profit and peril.
But it doesn’t stop there.
An advanced, premium version—available via a paid subscription—includes reporting dashboards, ESG overlays, integration capabilities, and predictive analytics, offering a suite of enterprise-grade features for boardroom-level decision-making. The public can explore a free version now, with full access launching from April 10 via fairsupply.com.
Beyond dollars and cents, the calculator introduces a new frontier in corporate transparency and governance. Illuminating complex global interdependencies empowers Australian businesses to regain control in a world where volatility has become the norm.
And for a nation so profoundly reliant on global trade, that insight is critical.
The calculator’s potential reach is vast. From automotive components to beauty products, from pharmaceuticals to home goods—any business touching global supply chains stands to benefit. And in an age when consumers increasingly expect companies to demonstrate resilience and responsibility, being able to preempt disruptions is fast becoming a competitive advantage.
Fair Supply’s achievement is more than technological; it’s strategic. It signals the coming of a new business paradigm—one where understanding your supply chain is no longer optional but essential.
As tariff tensions tighten worldwide, Australia’s food and beverage manufacturers have been handed a compass. The question now is whether they’ll use it.
By Karuna Johnson | Business & Trade Correspondent
