New projections by TravelInsurance.com.au reveal that Australia will reach the overseas travel levels originally expected if the pandemic hadn’t happened by the end of 2029. By then, Aussies are expected to take 17.8 million overseas trips annually.
These projections, based on historical ABS data, estimate where travel numbers would have been without the pandemic and when travellers will reach that level. The 17.8 million overseas trips annually reflect the original forecast before COVID and the economic downturn disrupted plans.
TravelInsurance.com.au CEO, Shaun McGowan, says the impact of the pandemic on international travel is still playing out today.
“We’re sick of talking about the pandemic, and it feels like yesterday’s news, but nearly 10 years of travel growth were lost. Both travellers and the industry are still feeling the aftershocks, not just financially, but through lingering operational challenges like flight shortages and staffing constraints,” he says.
“Airlines are still catching up, tourism operators abroad are working to regain years of lost momentum, and Australians are facing a different travel landscape with higher prices, changing policies, and declining trust in airline reliability and travel security.”
Aussies are expected to take 12.6 million overseas trips this year — still below the 14 million that would have been expected if not for the pandemic and following economic downturn.
International travel has been bouncing back since early 2021, when Australia reopened its borders. However, Australians have been approaching travel differently since then. Accessibility and affordability have become bigger priorities for travellers.
“Aussies are prioritising value — they’re still crossing international borders but staying closer to home. Southeast Asia, where their dollars stretch further, is seeing a surge in demand, while expensive long-haul trips to Europe and the US are taking a back seat for now,” says Shaun.
Travel to Southeast Asian destinations like Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia is expected to surge by 42% this year, with the region set to attract 4 million Australian travellers.
