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STR and Tourism Economics made slight adjustments to the 2024-25 U.S. hotel forecast just released at the 16th Annual Hotel Data Conference.

For 2024, projected gains in average daily rate (ADR) were downgraded 0.1 percentage points, while revenue per available room (RevPAR) was held steady at +2.0% year over year. Occupancy for the year was upgraded 0.2 ppts, after the previous forecast projected a year-over-year decline in the metric. For 2025, the occupancy growth projection was also lifted (+0.2ppts), while the forecast for ADR and RevPAR increases were kept at +2.0% and +2.6%, respectively.

“Midscale and Economy hotels are continuing to feel the effect of fewer lower-income travelers,” said Amanda Hite, STR president. “On the other hand, high-income households continue to travel, but domestic levels are constrained due to an increase in outbound travel. The stronger dollar continues to pressure international inbound demand, especially as the cost-of-living crisis continues in Europe and airlift rebuilds across Asia Pacific.”

“Economic growth is expected to be slower next year, but with strong household balance sheets, a gradual upswing expected in business investment, and moderating inflation, we anticipate a favorable context for moderate travel growth, said Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics. “Further gains in international inbound travel, as well as in business and group travel, are also expected to help support lodging demand growth next year.”

“Annual GOP and EBITDA margins are forecasted to improve slightly year over year,” said Hite. “For 2025, higher growth is expected across both metrics due to lower labor costs, which are set to decrease slightly for a majority of the chain scales. Upper Midscale chains are still expected to maintain the lowest labor costs this year, with 2025 levels forecasted to come in $168 lower than Luxury chains.”