The CAPA – Centre for Aviation (CAPA) Airline Capacity Model projects a slow, phased recovery in domestic air capacity in Australia through the remainder of 2020 reaching 37% of last year’s volume by early July and 60% by the end of the year.CAPA Chairman Emeritus, Peter Harbison said Australia is one of the best positioned countries globally to suppress the first wave of COVID-19 infection. If this continues and we avoid a second outbreak, the Australian domestic air market could see some signs of life by mid-year and a steady improvement by Christmas-2020, he said. “However, we don’t expect to see 2019 levels of domestic flying reached again this year. International will be hit harder and potentially take multiple years to recover. However this will be to the benefit of the domestic market – potentially also embracing trans Tasman operations”.
International markets are unlikely to recover quickly and the CAPA Airline Capacity Model sees international air capacity (seat numbers) still down by 92% year-on-year in Jul-2020, -86% in Oct-2020 and -85% in Dec-2020.”
The potential trans Tasman ‘bubble’ with New Zealand has been factored into the CAPA Model from Aug-2020, with some Pacific Islands linkages in time for the Christmas/New Year holidays. These “bubble” effects may influence “international” capacity growth projections.
Edited by Ian McIntosh
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