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Travellers hoping hotel prices might finally escape the inflationary era may want to keep their credit cards within reach. The latest industry forecasts point to another year of higher room rates in 2027, although the increases will be anything but uniform.

For Australian travellers, travel advisers and corporate buyers, Sydney is one of the markets worth watching closely. American Express Global Business Travel’s Hotel Monitor 2027 forecasts Sydney hotel rates will rise by 3.5% to 5.0% next year.

That puts Sydney broadly alongside London, forecast at 3.6% to 5.4%, and Paris at 3.1% to 4.8%, while placing it well ahead of more subdued increases expected in Singapore, at 0.8% to 1.6%, and Beijing, at 1.9% to 3.0%.

In other words, the global hotel bill is still heading north. It is simply taking different elevators.

Global rates rise, but more slowly

The broader outlook tells a similar story.

The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and ALTOUR forecast global hotel average daily rates, or ADR, to rise by 1.8% in 2027 to US$171, after a stronger 3.7% increase in 2026.

That is an important distinction. The pace of increase may be slowing, but hotel prices are not broadly forecast to fall.

GBTA says demand remains robust, while a record global hotel construction pipeline is helping contain rate growth. Rising energy prices, labour costs, capacity constraints and regional market conditions continue to shape travel pricing.

For travel managers, tour operators and holidaymakers, slower price growth is still price growth. The annual accommodation budget may be breathing a little easier, but it is hardly putting its feet up.

Sydney faces a World Cup squeeze

Sydney’s projected 3.5% to 5.0% rise deserves particular attention because 2027 will not be an ordinary year for Australian hotels.

Australia will host the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 across October and November. Sydney is scheduled to host 13 matches: five pool games, two round-of-16 fixtures, two quarter-finals, both semi-finals, the bronze final and the final at Stadium Australia on 13 November 2027.

The NSW Government estimates the tournament will attract around 215,000 visitors and inject more than $610 million into the NSW visitor economy.

A sporting event of that scale tends to put a little spring into a hotel revenue manager’s step.

CoStar and Tourism Economics forecast particularly strong Sydney hotel-rate growth during the tournament. Their Q2 2026 outlook says Sydney rate growth should be strong across October and November 2027, peaking at more than 10% in November.

Melbourne and Brisbane are also expected to feel the World Cup effect, with October rate growth forecast to approach 10% in both markets.

For travellers, the lesson is wonderfully old-fashioned: when a major event is filling a city, book early.

Waiting for a last-minute bargain during a World Cup is rather like waiting for a quiet taxi rank after New Year’s Eve fireworks.

Europe keeps considerable pricing power

Europe remains mixed, but several major business and leisure cities are expected to retain substantial pricing power.

Amex GBT forecasts Madrid hotel rates to rise by 6.1% to 9.2% in 2027, London by 3.6% to 5.4%, and Paris by 3.1% to 4.8%.

CoStar’s latest Q3 2026 forecast offers an important counterpoint. Across its 31 European forecast markets, aggregate RevPAR growth for 2027 has been trimmed slightly below zero as occupancy growth weakens. Yet ADR remains the principal support for hotel revenue in many cities.

Twenty of those 31 European markets are expected to see ADR growth outpace occupancy growth in 2027.

Germany is a good example of why city-level analysis matters.

Cologne is forecast to record 6.9% ADR growth in 2027, helped by major trade fairs including Anuga and IDS. Frankfurt is also expected to benefit from a stronger events calendar.

That is the modern hotel market in miniature: underlying costs provide pressure, while major events can supply the rocket fuel.

North America remains comparatively restrained

North America looks more measured.

Amex GBT expects most North American cities to record hotel-rate increases of 3% or less in 2027. New York is forecast at 1.6% to 2.5%, while San Francisco is a stronger outlier at 3.6% to 5.4%.

Mexico City is another standout within Amex GBT’s North American regional grouping, with rates forecast to rise by 4.7% to 7.1%.

The wording matters here. Mexico is geographically part of North America while also forming part of Latin America culturally and linguistically. Keeping the forecast within Amex GBT’s own regional grouping avoids turning a hotel story into a geography examination.

The wider US outlook is similarly restrained.

CoStar and Tourism Economics expect US hotel ADR to rise 1.6% in 2027, while RevPAR is forecast to rise 2.1%.

That is hardly a collapse in pricing power, but it is a long way from some of the dramatic post-pandemic jumps travellers endured earlier in the decade.

Latin American markets run hotter

Latin American markets contain some of the steepest projected increases in the Amex GBT Hotel Monitor.

São Paulo leads at 10.9% to 12.2%, while Buenos Aires is forecast to increase by 8.1% to 8.7% and Santiago by 2.8% to 4.2%.

Amex GBT links São Paulo’s strength partly to robust corporate demand, including activity associated with Brazil’s expanding oil and gas sector.

Brazil also has more than 20,000 hotel rooms in its development pipeline, according to the report, but much of that inventory is not expected to arrive in time to materially restrain 2027 rates.

For international corporate travel programs, those differences matter.

Adding one neat percentage to the entire hotel budget may look lovely in a spreadsheet. Unfortunately, 2027 appears unlikely to show spreadsheets the same courtesy.

Asia-Pacific: moderate does not mean cheap

Across Asia-Pacific, rate growth is generally expected to be more moderate, although there are clear exceptions.

Amex GBT forecasts Bengaluru to post a 5.0% to 5.5% increase in 2027. Seoul is higher still at 4.3% to 6.4%. Sydney sits at 3.5% to 5.0%, Beijing at 1.9% to 3.0%, and Singapore at 0.8% to 1.6%.

CoStar’s latest outlook broadly supports the picture of continued, but controlled, regional growth.

Across its 16 Asia-Pacific forecast markets, RevPAR is expected to rise 2.7% in 2027, supported by ADR growth of 1.4% and occupancy growth of 1.3%.

Travel buyers will welcome that moderation. But travellers should not confuse slower increases with lower prices.

A room that became expensive in 2025 and 2026 does not suddenly become a bargain merely because its price rises more slowly in 2027.

Middle East remains the wildcard

The Gulf outlook is more subdued and considerably more uncertain.

Amex GBT forecasts Dubai hotel rates to rise by just 1.0% to 2.0% in 2027, with Riyadh at 1.5% to 3.2% and Abu Dhabi at 1.7% to 4.1%.

Geopolitical uncertainty and its effects on airline capacity, travel confidence and corporate demand remain central variables.

CoStar’s Q3 outlook says the second half of 2027 could be particularly strong if international demand returns alongside fuller flight schedules and increased destination marketing.

That makes the Middle East one of the markets where today’s forecast deserves to be read as exactly that: a forecast, not a promise.

Hotel pricing gets smarter

Another change is less visible to guests but increasingly important to travel buyers: hotel pricing is becoming more sophisticated.

Revenue-management systems already adjust room rates based on demand, booking pace, major events, seasonality, and competitor behaviour. Artificial intelligence is making that analysis faster and more granular.

Travel buyers, meanwhile, are using increasingly sophisticated tools to compare negotiated rates, dynamic discounts, inclusions and traveller behaviour.

The result is a hotel marketplace in which the cheapest headline rate is not necessarily the best deal.

Breakfast, cancellation flexibility, loyalty benefits, Wi-Fi, location and ground transport can quickly turn an apparently cheap room into an expensive exercise.

Travel advisers therefore retain an important role. Clients increasingly need help deciding not simply where to stay, but when to book, when a major event is distorting the market and whether a higher room rate may actually represent better overall value.

Yesterday’s rate may not survive until tomorrow morning, and the algorithm has yet to develop a sentimental side.

What travel buyers should do now?

For corporate travel managers, 2027 argues strongly for a city-by-city approach to accommodation budgets.

Markets such as São Paulo, Buenos Aires, Madrid and Sydney could require considerably more headroom than destinations where hotel supply is keeping pace with demand.

Event calendars deserve greater attention, too. Rugby World Cup fixtures in Australia, major European trade fairs and large conventions can produce rate spikes that disappear when annual averages are examined.

Flexible sourcing will matter.

Companies relying solely on fixed negotiated rates may miss better dynamic discounts during softer periods, while travellers who depend exclusively on public rates could be badly exposed when demand surges.

It will also be important to distinguish annual forecasts from peak-period pricing.

Sydney’s annual Amex GBT forecast of 3.5% to 5.0% does not contradict CoStar’s forecast of more than a 10% increase in November 2027. One is an annual outlook; the other reflects a particularly intense event-driven month.

That distinction could matter to anyone arriving in Sydney with a rugby ticket and an optimistic hotel budget.

The old disciplines of travel management advance planning, sensible contracting, and knowing the calendar remain remarkably useful, even when algorithms do much of the arithmetic.

The bottom line

Hotel rates are forecast to rise again in 2027, but no single global number tells the whole story.

GBTA and ALTOUR expect worldwide ADR growth to slow to 1.8%. Yet individual city forecasts range from comparatively modest increases in markets such as Singapore and Dubai to double-digit growth at the upper end of São Paulo’s forecast.

Sydney occupies an important middle ground.

Its annual hotel-rate increase is forecast at 3.5% to 5.0%, but the Rugby World Cup creates the prospect of substantially sharper increases during the busiest weeks of October and November.

For travel buyers, travel advisers and consumers, the message is straightforward: 2027 will reward those who understand local markets, watch major event dates and book strategically.

The era of simply adding one percentage to last year’s hotel budget is fading.

And for anyone still waiting for hotel prices to return to the good old days, it may be wise to order breakfast.

It could be a long wait.