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Global business travel is preparing to break another spending record in 2026, but the headline figure comes with a rather expensive asterisk.

The Global Business Travel Association forecasts worldwide business travel spending will climb 7.2 per cent to US$1.71 trillion this year. Yet the number of work trips is expected to rise by only 1.3 per cent, from an estimated 1.82 billion journeys in 2025 to about 1.84 billion in 2026.

In plain English, companies will spend substantially more to move their people only slightly more often. The corporate road warrior is not disappearing. The road itself has simply become dearer, longer and, in several regions, far less predictable.

GBTA unveiled the figures during its 2026 Convention in Chicago. The 18th annual GBTA Business Travel Index covers 72 countries and 44 industries. Its traveller research draws on responses from more than 4,700 people across 66 global markets.

Spending rises faster than suitcases

The gap between spending and trip growth is the report’s defining message.

Business travel spending grew 8.4 per cent in 2025 to US$1.59 trillion, beating GBTA’s earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent. Stronger economic activity, easing trade tensions during the second half of the year and currency movements all helped lift the final result.

For 2026, roughly 25 million additional trips are expected to generate about US$120 billion in extra spending.

That does not mean every new dollar is inflation. It does show that airfares, transport, accommodation, and the broader cost of keeping travellers productive are taking a larger bite out of corporate budgets.

Suzanne Neufang, chief executive of GBTA, said: “Companies haven’t stepped away from travel”.

Her broader point is important. Organisations remain willing to put people on aircraft and trains and on hotel registers, but they are applying a sharper test to each journey. Travel remains essential, although companies are becoming more selective and placing greater weight on productivity and commercial impact.

That means fewer trips booked merely because “we have always attended”. It means more scrutiny of purpose, expected value and the people who genuinely need to be in the room.

The era of travel for travel’s sake is not dead everywhere, but finance departments are certainly helping it into a comfortable retirement.

Edward Galvin, Visa’s vice-president and head of North America Commercial Solutions, said companies were placing “greater emphasis on the value of every journey”.

He argued that modern payment systems could give travel and finance teams stronger control, better spending data and a clearer view of return on investment.

For travel management companies, airlines, hotels, and corporate booking platforms, this is both an opportunity and a warning.

Clients are still travelling, but suppliers will increasingly be asked to prove value with more than a smile, a points balance and a bowl of almonds in the lounge.

Australia races up the spending table

Australia is one of the fastest-growing major business travel markets in GBTA’s 2026 forecast.

Australian spending is expected to rise 11.5 per cent, placing the country behind only Brazil, at 13.8 per cent, among the fastest-growing markets in the global top 15.

South Korea is forecast to grow 11.3 per cent, followed by Türkiye at 10.9 per cent and Japan at 10 per cent.

The United States remains the world’s largest business travel market, with forecast spending of US$423 billion. China follows closely at US$403.7 billion.

Together, the two giants account for about 48 per cent of global business travel expenditure.

The top 15 markets are expected to generate US$1.43 trillion, or 84 per cent of the worldwide total.

That concentration matters. A change in American investment, Chinese commercial activity, or aviation access can quickly ripple through airline networks, hotel demand, meeting pipelines, and supplier confidence around the world.

For Australian travel sellers and corporate travel specialists, the 11.5 per cent growth forecast is encouraging. It suggests firm demand and an expansion in managed travel expenditure.

It also suggests clients may feel every increase in fares, room rates and ground transport costs with unusual force.

Growth, after all, is pleasant company until the invoice arrives.

Geopolitics redraws the route map

GBTA identifies four forces shaping the 2026 outlook: resilient economic growth, strong business investment, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and elevated transport costs.

The report assumes global gross domestic product growth will slow from about 3.3 per cent in 2025 to 2.9 per cent in 2026.

It also warns that renewed conflict, trade disruption or weaker business investment could push the outlook lower.

Conflict involving Iran and the broader Middle East disrupted aviation, trade and energy markets early in 2026. Airlines faced longer routings, altered connection points and higher operating costs.

GBTA’s forecast assumes conditions will stabilise and airline networks will gradually normalise during the second half of the year.

That is an assumption, not a boarding pass.

Further disruption could raise fuel and operating costs, reduce capacity, and make already expensive journeys harder for companies to approve.

The Middle East is expected to record a 12.3 per cent decline in business travel volume during 2026. Asia and Europe also face pressure from aviation disruption and energy costs.

The Americas offer a brighter picture.

Artificial intelligence and technology investment are supporting the United States, higher energy prices are helping Brazil, and greater stability in Argentina is contributing to broader growth across Latin America.

AI is doing more than writing meeting notes and producing slides no one admits to reading.

Investment in data centres, digital infrastructure and enterprise technology is creating demand for project teams, technical specialists, customer visits and cross-border collaboration. GBTA says the effect is particularly significant in North America and Asia Pacific.

Big industries still carry the suitcase

Some of the fastest sector growth through 2030 will come from mining and quarrying, human health and social work, and education.

Their forecast compound annual growth rates range from 6.3 to 6.6 per cent. However, those sectors together represent only 1.6 per cent of total 2026 business travel spending.

Their growth may create attractive niches, but it will not steer the entire market.

Utilities and manufacturing are expected to grow more slowly, at 4.1 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively through 2030.

Yet those two sectors account for 42 per cent of current business travel spending and will continue to have an outsized influence on the global market.

In other words, the less glamorous industrial workhorses still pull much of the wagon.

That distinction should matter to suppliers. Fast percentage growth can make an excellent headline, but market size pays the bills.

Travellers adapt as managed travel holds firm

GBTA’s survey suggests business travellers remain active despite higher costs and a more unsettled operating environment.

Almost three-quarters, or 74 per cent, said they travelled as much as or more than in previous years. Asia Pacific led the field, with 80 per cent maintaining or increasing their travel activity.

Looking ahead, 28 per cent expect to travel more in 2026 than they did in 2025.

The share rises to 36 per cent among respondents in the Middle East and Africa, even as the region faces the forecast’s sharpest overall decline in volume.

That contrast reflects a market where the need to travel can remain strong even when disruption reduces the number of journeys that are ultimately completed.

Most travellers still fall within familiar frequency bands.

In 2025, 41 per cent took one or two business trips, 44 per cent took between three and 10, and 15 per cent took more than 10.

Air remains the dominant mode, and 42 per cent of flyers said they usually travelled in premium cabins.

Rail also plays a major role, especially in Asia Pacific, where 72 per cent reported using it, and Europe, at 60 per cent.

Managed travel remains firmly embedded. Sixty-five per cent said their companies require or encourage bookings through a travel management company or corporate online booking tool.

Meanwhile, 68 per cent receive a corporate credit card, and 63 per cent can collect personal benefits or features while using it for business expenses.

Those figures underline a familiar truth: policy, payment and traveller experience now sit at the same table.

Companies want control. Travellers want ease. Suppliers must provide both without turning the booking process into a minor diplomatic incident.

The US$2 trillion horizon moves back

GBTA now expects global business travel spending to pass US$2 trillion by 2030, one year later than forecast in the previous report.

Growth is expected to moderate after 2026, although continued business investment and international commercial activity should keep the market moving forward.

The delayed milestone is not a collapse. It is a reminder that record nominal spending can coexist with slower trip growth, tighter policies and greater caution.

For the travel industry, the 2026 outlook is therefore neither boom nor bust. It is disciplined expansion.

Companies still believe in meeting customers, inspecting projects, negotiating contracts and bringing teams together. They are simply less willing to pay for journeys that cannot justify the cost.

The suitcase remains open. The calculator is now packed beside it.

Download or access the 2026 GBTA Business Travel Index executive summary.

Read the official GBTA announcement.