The next great air travel boom may not be led only by London, Singapore, Dubai or Los Angeles. Airbus believes much of the growth will come from smaller cities, whose residents, businesses and families increasingly want direct flights, fewer stopovers and less time spent changing aircraft at sprawling international hubs.
The Airbus 2026–2045 Global Market Forecast says passenger traffic will grow by 3.9 per cent a year. By 2045, air traffic is expected to more than double, reaching about 10 billion passengers annually. Airbus links this expansion to economic growth, larger urban populations and a growing global middle class.
The number of middle-class people most likely to fly is forecast to rise by 1.4 billion, or 34 per cent. The world’s urban population is also expected to increase by 1.3 billion. Put simply, more people will have both the need and the means to travel.
Smaller cities gain a bigger place on the route map
The key change is not merely how many people will fly, but where their journeys will begin and end.
Airbus expects smaller urban centres to grow considerably faster than major cities. That shift could spread airline networks beyond traditional trunk routes and mega-hubs. The old idea that every worthwhile journey must pass through an enormous airport may soon appear rather dated.
New-generation aircraft are helping airlines make thinner routes commercially viable. Airbus points to Riga-Tenerife and Melbourne-Alice Springs as examples of routes that can be served efficiently by aircraft such as the A220.
A greater range is also opening longer non-stop links. Examples include Lisbon–Recife with the A321neo, Dublin–Nashville with the A321XLR, Algiers–Kuala Lumpur with the A330neo and Taipei–Phoenix with the A350.
For passengers, the appeal is obvious. Direct flights can mean less waiting, fewer missed connections and a lower risk of one’s luggage deciding to enjoy a holiday of its own.
For airlines and destinations, the prize can be greater still. A new direct route may stimulate tourism, trade and investment. It can also serve passengers visiting friends and relatives, a market commonly known as VFR traffic.
These travellers may continue flying even when leisure demand softens. Birthdays, weddings and family obligations, after all, rarely consult the economic cycle before setting a date.
Asia-Pacific takes a larger role
Airbus says the balance of global air travel demand is moving towards the Asia-Pacific region. Strong growth in India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia is reshaping traffic flows and creating new markets.
Migration is also influencing demand. Airbus notes that the global migrant population has passed 300 million, meaning more people require reliable air links to relatives living across borders.
This trend is particularly relevant to Australia. The nation is distant from many of its principal markets and has a large overseas-born population. It also relies heavily on aviation to connect its major cities, regional centres and remote communities.
Improved aircraft range and lower fuel consumption could make more direct routes possible between Australia and fast-growing Asian markets.
Regional Australia may benefit as well. Aircraft with the right capacity and operating economics can connect smaller centres without the expense of deploying a larger jet.
A route does not need to carry a football crowd every day. It needs the right aircraft, consistent demand and sensible airport costs.
Airlines will need 42,060 new aircraft
Airbus expects airlines to require 42,060 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years. Of that total, 19,820 will replace older aircraft, while a further 22,240 will be needed to support growth.
About 81 per cent of the new aircraft will be single-aisle models, with the remaining 19 per cent comprising wide-body aircraft.
The global passenger and freighter fleet is expected to grow from 23,210 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 45,550 by the end of 2045. Nearly half of all new deliveries will therefore replace aircraft already in service.
Fleet renewal will be a major undertaking. Airbus says new-generation aircraft will account for almost the entire global fleet by 2045, compared with about 39 per cent in 2026.
New aircraft can consume less fuel and produce lower carbon emissions per seat than the older models they replace. They can also give airlines greater operational flexibility.
A smaller jet can open a lower-demand route. A long-range single-aisle aircraft can serve sectors once reserved for wide-bodies. That flexibility may prove every bit as valuable as sheer size.
The forecast also reflects Airbus’s current sales mix. Its order book stands at about 9,000 aircraft. More than 70 per cent of the A320 Family backlog comprises the larger A321neo and A321XLR.
Those aircraft offer the range and seating capacity required for many new city pairs. Larger markets can be served by the A330neo, while the A350 covers the longest passenger routes and the premium long-haul freight sector.
Air travel remains an economic lifeline
Airbus says aviation supports 3.9 per cent of global gross domestic product and carries 58 per cent of international tourists. Yet its value cannot be measured only in holiday arrivals.
Air services connect remote towns, carry urgent goods and allow students to study abroad. They support research, commerce and family life.
For some communities, an aircraft is not a luxury. It is the bus, the freight truck and the bridge to the wider world.
A forecast is not a promise, of course. Wars, fuel prices, aircraft delivery delays, airport constraints and government regulations can all disrupt the timetable.
Air travel has never lacked headwinds. Nor has it lacked people willing to predict its demise from a comfortable chair on the ground.
Even so, Airbus argues that long-term demand has remained resilient through previous shocks. Its forecast suggests the next 20 years will not be shaped solely by larger hubs and larger crowds.
Smaller cities will gain more direct flights, while efficient aircraft will make those connections easier to operate and sell.
The route map is spreading out. Places once left in the margins may soon find themselves much closer to the centre.
By: May Marclay – © 2026.
Read Time: 4 minutes.
Author Bio:
May Marclay’s career hasn’t followed a straight line, and she’s better for it. She began in real estate, then moved into hospitality, finding her rhythm with Centara in the Maldives. There, she worked the Asian markets the old-fashioned way: building trust, closing deals, and turning conversations into lasting business.
The UAE sharpened its focus. At IHG, supporting an Area General Manager, she saw the machinery of a major travel hub from the inside, no gloss, just how things actually get done.
Now, with her sights set on healthcare, May brings a broader lens than most. She speaks three languages, reads widely, travels with intent, and writes with the calm assurance of someone who understands both the detail and the bigger picture without needing to say so too loudly.
