In a commercial aviation climate still plagued by overcrowded terminals, grumpy queues, and ticket prices that seem determined to test one’s faith in capitalism, the business jet sector has quietly gone about its business, calm, unhurried, and decidedly more dignified.
And now, according to the newly released Global Jet Capital Business Jet Market Outlook 2025–2029, the sector looks set for a steady, confident ascent over the next five years. The timing is no accident: the forecast deliberately lands on the eve of the industry’s annual gathering in Las Vegas, a place where people have been known to gamble—but where the business jet market itself remains a notably safe bet.
2025-2029 Forecast
For an industry that has weathered everything from pandemics to supply-chain tantrums, this report reads like a reassuring nod from a seasoned pilot: we’re climbing again.
A Market That Has Refused to Falter
The past half-decade has thrown aviation more plot twists than a binge-worthy drama: border closures, COVID caution, labour shortages, and enough supply-chain bother to make any aircraft OEM grit their teeth. And yet, business jets—those stalwart chariots of privacy and productivity—did not merely survive. They matured.
As the report notes, the enduring value proposition of business aviation, “immediate access, security, safety, and productivity”,—remains just as compelling post-pandemic as it was before.
After two years of recalibration, both new and pre-owned transactions began climbing again in 2024. The sector now expects total transaction volume to rise 8.3% in 2025, accompanied by a 6% increase in dollar volume.
In business aviation, that’s not exuberance. That’s discipline.
Economic Momentum Fuels Demand
Behind the recovery is a global economy that, somewhat remarkably, has proven sturdier than many feared. Even amid geopolitical tensions and tariff disputes, global GDP is forecast to grow 2.6% annually over the next five years.
Business jet demand is intimately tied to wealth creation—and the world, for better or worse, continues to create wealth.
Flight activity, which bounced around during the post-COVID period, has now settled into a familiar upward glide. Departures increased 2.8% from January to July 2025, marking a return to the steady, sustainable growth pattern last seen between 2010 and 2019.
The COVID-era influx of first-time private flyers, those who briefly fled commercial chaos, has proven surprisingly loyal. Once you’ve experienced a cabin without elbows in your ribs and boarding groups that don’t resemble a rugby scrum, it’s hard to go back.
New Jets: Big Backlogs, Bigger Demand
Manufacturers have spent the last several years in a delicate dance with supply-chain constraints and labour hiccups. The result? Demand kept climbing, and delivery schedules lagged just behind.
Backlogs at major OEMs rose 7.4% in 2024 and now stand 62.2% above 2019 levels, an extraordinary cushion of assured business.
New deliveries grew 3.8% in 2024 and should rise 4.4% in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7% through 2029. Dollar volume will grow even faster, boosted by the steady shift toward more capable, higher-value aircraft.
In aviation terms, this is the equivalent of a well-planned long-haul: not rushed, not fraught, simply efficient.
Heavy Jets Lead the Pack
If there is a star performer in this forecast, it is the heavy jet. These long-range thoroughbreds built for crossing continents, carrying more passengers, and offering cabins that feel like floating boardrooms are projected to grow at 5.3% annually through 2029.
By the end of the period, heavy jets are expected to account for 32.6% of all new deliveries, up from 29.9% in the previous five years.
International travel is rebounding, corporate mobility is back on the agenda, and the allure of “Sydney to Singapore without stopping” doesn’t appear to be fading anytime soon.
Pre-Owned Market Returns to Form
While the new jet market continues its methodical climb, the pre-owned sector has rediscovered its pep.
After two years of normalisation during which buyers waited for prices to cool and sellers hoped the post-pandemic pricing peak might hold, 2024 finally brought equilibrium. The result? A rapid resurgence.
Pre-owned transactions increased 9.2% year-on-year through mid-2025 and are forecast to grow 9.5% for the whole year.
Over the long term, the pre-owned sector is expected to log 13,696 transactions worth nearly US$97 billion, growing at 4.2% annually.
Heavy jets again lead the charge, with pre-owned activity rising 6.1% annually, proving that global appetite for large, long-range capability remains robust.
North America Still Dominates the Skies
Some things in aviation never change, and North America’s dominance of business jets is one of them.
The region is forecast to account for a commanding 73.8% of all new and pre-owned transactions between 2025 and 2029. It also leads the pre-owned market specifically, with 73.9% of all such transactions occurring in the region.
Latin America emerges as the second-largest market, accounting for 11.3% of global activity, driven overwhelmingly by pre-owned purchases, while Europe remains a critical but minor player at 8.4%.
Asia Pacific and the Middle East/Africa, meanwhile, remain the “watch this space” regions as wealth creation and corporate expansion fuel increasing demand.
Risks on the Horizon? Naturally.
No aviation forecast is complete without a reminder that the skies, while mostly clear, are never entirely without weather.
Downside risks highlighted in the report include:
• geopolitical volatility
• trade disruptions
• recessionary pressures
• sustained supply-chain fragility
• environmental regulation tightening
Yet even here, the industry shows remarkable resilience. In 2024, actual market performance landed close to Global Jet Capital’s own forecast—with new jet value off by just 0.7%, and pre-owned transaction value exceeding expectations by 4.8%, thanks to stronger-than-expected heavy jet sales.
Forecasting rarely gets better than that.
A Clear Runway Ahead
What emerges from this forecast is not a portrait of boom-and-bust volatility, but of calm, measured growth.
Across 2025–2029, total business jet transaction activity is expected to rise 3.9% annually, supported by improving supply chains, healthy OEM backlogs, a buoyant global economy, and sustained demand from both new and established users.
In the understated words opening the report: “While nothing is ever perfect, the business aviation industry is in a pretty good place.”
Given the industry’s recent history, “pretty good” might be the new “excellent”.
By Yves Thomas – (c) 2025
Read Time: 6 minutes.
About the Writer
Something quietly magnetic about Yves Thomas is the poised calm of someone who’s seen the world from both sides of the reception desk. A graduate of Bangkok University International, Yves earned her Bachelor of Arts in International Tourism and Hospitality Management and stepped straight into the beating heart of Thailand’s travel industry.
She worked with some of the country’s finest destination management companies, mastering the art of making other people’s holidays unforgettable.
In time, the call of the open road grew louder than boardroom meetings. Yves packed her bags, swapped conference calls for compass points, and set off to rediscover the joy of travel on her own terms. Somewhere between Chiang Mai and Copenhagen, she began to write small reflections that soon became her travel blog, a journal full of warmth and insight.
Now calling Hua Hin home, Yves has joined Global Travel Media to share those reflections with a broader audience, not as a publicist, but as a storyteller with a traveller’s soul and a professional’s eye for detail.
