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Riskline’s latest global assessment warns that worsening fire seasons are threatening travellers, transport networks and tourism businesses.

Riskline’s Wildfires Informer 2026 has put the global travel trade on notice. Wildfire travel risk is no longer a distant problem in forests and rural towns. It is now a direct threat to flights, tours, hotels, traveller health and the duty of care carried by every serious travel business.

The report says wildfires are moving from wilderness into population centres. They can ground aircraft, close roads, cut visibility and force sudden evacuations. Travellers may lose belongings, have their accommodation damaged, or become stranded. Its blunt conclusion is that “wildfires are no longer just a localised environmental issue”. That is not melodrama. It is a business warning for an industry built on access, trust and working infrastructure.

A warning count that almost doubled

The numbers make uneasy reading. A chart on page three of the report shows Riskline issued 1,186 wildfire alerts in 2025, up from 633 in 2024. That is an increase of about 87 per cent. The travel-risk drumbeat did not merely quicken; it almost doubled.

For agents, travel managers and suppliers, that means more changes, more anxious calls and more emergency decisions. It also means more days when a sound itinerary becomes a maze of closures before lunch.

El Niño raises the stakes

The climate setting is also becoming harder. The World Meteorological Organisation said in June that El Niño had an 80 per cent chance of developing during June to August 2026. It put the chance of it lasting into at least November at near or above 90 per cent. By July, NOAA had confirmed El Niño conditions and expected them to strengthen through the end of the year.

El Niño can alter rain and heat patterns. In some regions, that can lift the risk of drought, heat and fire. Yet its effects vary from place to place. A wet outlook in one country can sit beside a dry one elsewhere.

One point needs a firm editorial correction. Riskline refers to a possible “Super El Niño”. The WMO does not use that term in its formal system. It uses moderate, strong and very strong. That may sound fussy, but clear language matters when forecasts shape bookings, insurance and risk policy. There is enough heat in the outlook without setting the wording on fire.

United States fires surge above average

North America is already showing why the travel sector should pay attention. By 29 July, the United States had recorded 43,145 wildfires and more than 4.5 million acres burned in 2026. The National Interagency Fire Centre said the year was above the 10-year average for both the number of fires and area burned. More than 26,000 people were assigned to fire response.

For travellers, those figures turn into simple problems. Roads close. Airports may stay open while smoke, poor visibility or crew issues delay flights. Trains and coaches can stop. National parks, tracks and attractions may shut overnight. Power and mobile networks may also fail when lines and towers are damaged or overloaded.

The report maps risk across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. It pays close attention to Australia, Indonesia, and India in the Asia-Pacific region. Canada, the United States, Chile, and the Pampas are featured in the Americas. Europe’s Mediterranean belt remains exposed. Parts of Africa face a further problem: wide fire risk in places with limited emergency services.

Australia needs no introduction to bushfire risk. The season differs across the states and territories, but fires can disrupt flights, tours, regional hotels and major events far from the flames. Smoke also travels well. Unlike most passengers, it does not need a boarding pass.

Smoke is a travel health threat

Health is a major part of the warning. The World Health Organisation says fine particles are the main public-health danger in wildfire smoke. PM2.5 can reach deep into the lungs and harm the heart and breathing system. Children, older people, pregnant travellers and people with heart or lung illness face higher risk.

Riskline also warns that wildfire smoke can travel long distances and remain in the air well after the immediate fire threat has moved on. Symptoms may include irritated eyes, coughing, breathing difficulty and chest pain.

A well-fitted N95 or P100 respirator can cut exposure to smoke particles when a person must go outside. Still, a mask is not a magic shield. The safest first steps are to limit exposure, stay indoors when told to, keep indoor air clean, and follow local health advice.

Travel planning must start before departure

The travel industry’s response must begin before the trip. Riskline urges travellers to follow official agencies, weather services, disaster bodies and checked alert systems. Social media can offer useful local detail. It can also spread rumour at bushfire speed. A dramatic post from a stranger is not an evacuation order.

Travel insurance also matters, but the fine print matters more than the beach photo. Cover can differ for cancellation, delay, interruption, evacuation and natural disasters. Once a fire is a known event, a new policy may not cover it. Travellers should buy insurance early, read the Product Disclosure Statement and ask the insurer direct questions. Australian consumer guidance confirms that natural-disaster cover commonly depends on a policy being bought before the incident becomes a known event.

This is where travel advisers earn their keep. A skilled adviser can contact airlines, hotels, ground operators, car-hire firms and insurers. The traveller can then focus on staying safe. In an emergency, calm coordination is not a luxury extra. It can stop a delay becoming a full holiday bonfire.

Flexible plans are now part of good travel design. Travellers should be familiar with other airports, roads, and hotels before entering a fire-prone region. Corporate programs should set rules for rerouting or delaying travel. They should also hold current contact details and provide real after-hours support.

Riskline recommends an emergency kit with water, food, first-aid supplies, torches, batteries, masks, medicines, cash, identification and travel documents. People driving in remote areas should keep the fuel tank filled and carry a paper map. Apps are marvellous until the signal vanishes and the battery starts its final fall to one per cent.

Smartraveller similarly recommends carrying water, food, medicines, first-aid items, torches, batteries, passports and a hard-copy emergency contact list. Devices and power banks should be charged before power or communications fail.

Leave early, not heroically late

Evacuation advice is clear. Leave early when officials advise it. Smartraveller warns that a late exit can be more dangerous than staying in shelter, especially when fire or smoke has cut roads. Travellers should use marked routes, obey closures and never drive towards fire because the road “looks all right”.

Hotels and tour firms also have a heavy duty. Properties in exposed areas need working smoke and heat alarms, clear exit plans, trained staff and sound guest-contact systems. Tour operators must know where clients are, how to reach them and which local body is in charge. A plan locked in an office is not a plan. It is stationery.

Operators should also prepare for telecommunications failures. Fire damage and heavy network demand can delay warnings, interrupt calls and leave travellers unable to access maps or instructions. Satellite messengers and personal locator beacons may offer another line of contact in remote areas, although they should support, not replace, local emergency advice.

Will “coolcationing” reshape demand?

The report also points to “coolcationing”. This is the shift towards cooler places as heat and fire affect old summer favourites. It will not empty the Mediterranean or North America’s national parks. Nor should it. Yet it may change booking dates, marketing and peak seasons. Cooler climates, shoulder seasons and flexible tours now carry more value.

Destinations face a hard message task. Overstatement can harm towns that depend on visitors. Understatement can put visitors in danger. The answer is clear: local and current advice. Say which areas are affected. Say what remains open. Explain which transport still runs and what travellers should do next.

“The country is on fire” is rarely useful. “Business as usual” is no better when the highway is shut.

The broad lesson from Wildfires Informer 2026 is not that people should stop travelling. It is that travellers and travel firms must stop treating fire as a rare footnote. Wildfire travel risk now belongs beside passports, visas, insurance and weather checks in every sound pre-trip routine.

Mother Nature has always had the final say. The travel industry’s job is to hear her sooner, plan with care and move people to safety before the timetable turns to ash.