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After several years spent lurching between recovery plans, aircraft delivery delays, and the occasional geopolitical surprise, the world’s fastest-moving aviation markets appear to have found their cruising altitude.

Airports across Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are entering what industry leaders describe as the next, more confident phase of growth, one less about catching up with the past and more about building capacity for a future that looks unambiguously busy.

According to the latest Short Term Forecast 2025–2028 released by Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East (ACI APAC & MID), passenger traffic across the two regions is set to grow steadily and sustainably over the next four years. The forecast, developed in partnership with aviation data specialist OAG, covers 1,207 airports across 43 countries, making it one of the most comprehensive snapshots of global aviation momentum currently available.

The headline numbers are quietly impressive. Passenger traffic in Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow at 4.8 per cent annually between 2025 and 2028, while the Middle East is tipped to outpace even that, expanding at 5.4 per cent a year over the same period.

This is not a rebound story. That chapter is essentially over. What ACI is now describing is a structural expansion, underpinned by resilient economies, returning international confidence and a level of airport investment not seen in decades.

Growth with its feet firmly on the ground

Stefano Baronci, Director General of ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East, says the region’s airports are shifting from recovery mode to a more strategic approach.

“Our outlook reaffirms that the region’s airports are entering a next phase of growth,” Baronci said. “With strong macro-economic fundamentals, renewed international travel demand, and record levels of airport investment, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are expected to remain the world’s most dynamic aviation markets through the decade.”

It is a measured optimism, not blind enthusiasm. Baronci is quick to acknowledge that geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions and aircraft delivery delays still loom large over the industry.

“Despite the strong upward trajectory, geopolitical tensions and supply-side challenges around the region continue to cast uncertainty over the industry,” he said.

In aviation, optimism without caveats is usually a sign that someone hasn’t read the footnotes.

Asia-Pacific: powered by people, not promises

In Asia-Pacific, the growth story is being driven less by grand statements and more by something stubbornly reliable: people wanting — and increasingly able — to travel.

Overall passenger traffic in the region is expected to grow 4.8 per cent annually through to 2028, supported by rising airport capacity, new airline entrants and the slow but steady arrival of new aircraft.

While some international markets remain below pre-COVID capacity, mainly due to geopolitical factors and supply-chain bottlenecks, the broader picture is reassuring. Most Asia-Pacific markets are expected to surpass 2019 passenger levels by 2026 or earlier.

The standout performer remains Southern Asia, which is forecast to grow at a brisk 6.3 per cent annually. The sub-region is already 12.6 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, with India doing much of the heavy lifting.

India alone is expected to add 100 million domestic passengers by 2028, a figure that would test the elasticity of almost any airport system. International demand remains robust as well, supported by the introduction of new long-range aircraft that are reshaping route economics and opening up non-stop connections that would have seemed ambitious a decade ago.

Vietnam steps forward, China steps back – then forward again

In South-eastern Asia, growth is forecast at 5.1 per cent, though 2025 traffic is still expected to sit 6.6 per cent below 2019 levels. Aircraft delivery delays and subdued Chinese outbound travel have slowed the pace, but the fundamentals remain strong.

Vietnam stands out, with passenger traffic forecast to grow at a striking 8.1 per cent annually, positioning it as one of the region’s most dynamic aviation markets. Thailand and Indonesia, by contrast, are expected to grow at a more measured rate of around 4 per cent, reflecting capacity constraints rather than lack of demand.

Eastern Asia is forecast to grow at a 4.3 per cent CAGR, slightly below the Asia-Pacific average. The drag here is economic momentum rather than appetite for travel. International traffic, however, tells a different story, growing at 6.6 per cent annually, led by China’s long-anticipated outbound rebound.

China’s international passenger growth is forecast at 10.3 per cent, with a full recovery expected by 2027. Hong Kong, meanwhile, is staging a notable comeback, posting a 9.2 per cent CAGR, with a full return to 2019 traffic levels expected as early as next year.

Oceania, never one for dramatic aviation swings, continues its steady progress. Passenger traffic is forecast to grow 3.3 per cent annually through to 2028. While 2025 volumes remain 2.3 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, international traffic is expected to grow at an average of 4.3 per cent annually between 2024 and 2028. Australia and New Zealand together account for 90 per cent of the region’s passengers, and continue to anchor its stability.

Middle East: building the future at scale

If Asia-Pacific’s story is about population and demand, the Middle East’s is about ambition and concrete.

Passenger traffic across the Middle East is forecast to grow 5.4 per cent annually between 2025 and 2028, driven by extraordinary levels of airport investment and a deliberate strategy to position the region as the world’s most connected aviation hub.

Saudi Arabia sits at the centre of this transformation. The Kingdom’s domestic market, already the largest in the region, is expected to grow from 58 million passengers in 2024 to 72.5 million by 2028, representing 5.5 per cent annual growth.

Much of this expansion is tied to Vision 2030, with aviation playing a starring role. King Salman International Airport in Riyadh is being developed to handle 120 million passengers by 2030, scaling up to 185 million by 2050, with support from five runways. It is not subtle infrastructure planning.

Dubai, never one to be outdone, is progressing with the relocation of its aviation hub to Dubai World Central, targeting an eventual capacity of 260 million passengers, also across five runways. Abu Dhabi’s upgraded Zayed International Airport is already translating investment into growth, reinforcing the region’s competitive intensity.

International passenger traffic across the Middle East is forecast to grow 5.3 per cent annually, reflecting the region’s dual role as a global transfer hub and an increasingly popular leisure and business destination in its own right.

Domestic traffic is expected to grow slightly faster, at 5.5 per cent annually, with Saudi Arabia again leading the charge. Growth is supported by airline expansion, including Air Arabia’s new Dammam base and the launch of Riyadh Air, both designed to stimulate domestic connectivity as much as international reach.

The policy challenge ahead

For all the optimism, ACI is clear that infrastructure alone will not carry the load.

“To support this growth, our airports are not only optimising the use of existing infrastructure but also preparing for the next phase of expansion,” Baronci said. “Massive investments will require adequate financing and revenue diversification.”

Just as importantly, he argues, governments must play their part.

“Stronger government support is crucial to liberalise air transport, modernise outdated slot allocation rules, and streamline visa policies across the region, all proven drivers of economic development,” he said.

In other words, the runways may be ready. The paperwork needs to keep up.