Hotels have long lived in dread of the silent check-out—the kind where guests vanish, never to rebook, never to complain, and never to return. However, according to the latest findings out of Amsterdam, the solution may finally lie not in better pillows or welcome mints but in cold, calculated artificial intelligence. And yes, it works.
In a remarkable fusion of academia and industry, Dr Rik van Leeuwen, Head of Data Solutions and Customer Success at the Netherlands-based hospitality tech company Ireckonu, has revealed new research that could transform how hotels retain their most elusive guests. His work, completed during a PhD stint that makes multitasking look noble, uncovers precisely when hotels must act to prevent guest churn—and more importantly, how.
According to the study, conducted in collaboration with a major North American hotel group (they remain unnamed, but one suspects they know how to spell “Hilton”), guests who hit a 75% churn risk can still be wooed back with a well-timed 20% discount. Not before, not after, not with balloons or breakfast—just a plain, potent offer—and right on cue.
“It’s not just about spotting churn risk anymore,” Dr van Leeuwen said. “It’s about converting that insight into action. You need to know when to pull the lever—and with what.”
Van Leeuwen’s AI approach isn’t your typical black-box sorcery. Rather than throw data into the void and hope a miracle drops out the other end, his model uses a refreshing mix of transparency and accountability, tailored specifically for the hospitality sector. The secret sauce? A hybrid framework couples the BG/NBD model (Beta Geometric/Negative Binomial Distribution for those playing along at home) with reinforcement learning to time retention actions down to the minute.
Let’s translate that into something a bit more digestible for hoteliers: It’s like having a maître d’ who knows—not guesses—exactly when your guest is slipping out the digital back door, and when to flash a silver platter with an irresistible comeback deal.
The beauty of this research is its balance of brain and brawn. It’s data-heavy, yes, but convenient. It’s academic, sure, but tested in real hotel trenches. And it’s all built with the humble goal of helping hotels keep the guests they’ve worked so hard to earn.
For Ireckonu CEO Jan Jaap van Roon, this isn’t just clever research—it’s a game-changing strategy.
“Rik’s work gives scientific credibility to something the hotel industry has been wrestling with forever—loyalty,” said van Roon. “This isn’t a lab experiment. It’s tested, it works, and we’re implementing it.”
This breakthrough is more than just a one-off experiment. Ireckonu is now weaving this churn-prevention model into its broader middleware and guest data platforms, making it accessible for hotel groups who don’t have the luxury of an in-house data scientist with a doctorate and a whiteboard.
Importantly, this research doesn’t just look backward. It casts a hopeful eye to the future—towards dynamic pricing based on churn probability, sentiment analysis to capture guest emotion in real-time, and applications across other industries that operate on frequent, non-contractual relationships (airlines and cafés, take note).
So, what does all this mean in plain terms? Simply put, we’re entering an era where AI won’t just help hotels serve guests—it’ll help them keep them, not with generic marketing blasts but with tailored, timely, trust-based engagement powered by clean, smart guest data.
And let’s not overlook the bigger picture here. Dr van Leeuwen’s research underscores a return to hospitality’s oldest truth: timing is everything. Only now, it’s not gut instinct or old-fashioned charm that drives it—algorithms, churn thresholds, and digital foresight. The age-old art of guest retention, it seems, is finally getting its PhD.
The message is clear for those clinging to clipboards and checkout surveys: evolve or fade. The era of smart hospitality isn’t coming—it’s here. And it’s arriving with an academic flourish, a 20% email offer, and a whisper from your AI assistant saying, “Now. Send it now.”
By Soo James
