The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has released its Mid-Year Report for the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecast 2024-2026, unveiling a promising outlook for international visitor arrivals (IVAs). According to PATA, Asia Pacific is set to witness a robust resurgence in tourism, with visitor numbers projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 2024.
In a detailed analysis, PATA’s report underscores significant annual growth in IVAs across Asia Pacific under a mild scenario. This anticipated growth is expected to exceed the visitor numbers seen in 2019 for the first time since the pandemic began. While this outlook is highly optimistic, the report presents a medium scenario where 2019 levels are reached by 2025 and a severe scenario where recovery is slower, with IVAs remaining 31% below 2019 levels in 2024 and 13% below by 2026.
Unveiling the Numbers
The comprehensive report, sponsored by Visa and enriched with data from Euromonitor International, reveals that despite challenges, the tourism sector in the Asia Pacific is poised for a significant comeback. PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid emphasized the dual nature of the forecast. “While growth projections are generally bullish, we must remain vigilant about potential obstacles such as geopolitical tensions, climate change, and economic uncertainties,” Hamid stated. “Our focus must be on innovative solutions to combat these challenges.”
The forecast shows that Asia, the Americas, and the Pacific will exceed 2019 IVA numbers in 2024 under the mild scenario. This positive trend is expected to continue into 2025 and 2026, with all three regions surpassing pre-pandemic levels. However, the severe scenario forecasts a more tempered recovery, highlighting the importance of strategic planning and adaptability in tourism.
Regional Highlights
The report delves into sub-regional data, revealing that eight of 11 sub-regions are predicted to experience annual growth rates exceeding 10% in 2024 under the medium scenario. Micronesia, South America, and Southeast Asia are expected to lead with growth rates of 77.8%, 47.0%, and 36.0%, respectively. In terms of absolute numbers, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and North America are projected to see significant increases in IVAs, with gains of 44.6 million, 36.2 million, and 12.7 million, respectively.
Northeast Asia is identified as a significant driver of this growth. China, Macao, and South Korea are expected to contribute significantly to the increase in IVAs, adding 35.9 million, 8.5 million, and 7.6 million visitors to the Asia Pacific count between 2023 and 2024. Northeast Asia remains dominant over the 2023-2026 period, with the top five source markets by additional IVAs originating from this sub-region. The USA is the only non-Northeast Asian market to feature prominently, underlining the global appeal of Asia Pacific destinations.
Strategic Insights
The PATA report provides a wealth of strategic insights for stakeholders. It includes forecasts for 39 individual destinations within Asia Pacific, highlighting the importance of tailored strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the post-COVID era. The report also covers key source markets, quarterly international inbound air capacity changes, and tourism economic trends.
Noor Ahmad Hamid highlighted the importance of responsible and sustainable tourism practices. “As we progress towards growth, we must prioritize quality tourism experiences, environmental conservation, and community engagement. This approach will ensure long-term sustainability and resilience in our tourism sector,” he said.
Exclusive Access for PATA Members
PATA members can access exclusive content, including a webinar recording titled “Navigating the Path to Tourism Demand Recovery in Asia Pacific.” Held on June 6, 2024, this webinar featured expert panelists from The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Euromonitor International, and Visa. These experts provided invaluable insights into travel trends, key drivers and barriers to tourism recovery, and future trends to shape the industry.
The Mid-Year Report is a crucial resource for understanding the trajectory of tourism in Asia Pacific. It offers a detailed forecast of international visitor arrivals, economic and expenditure trends, and consumer behaviour shifts. By leveraging these insights, industry stakeholders can develop effective strategies to navigate the evolving landscape and drive sustainable growth.
Conclusion
PATA’s Mid-Year Report paints a hopeful picture for the future of tourism in the Asia Pacific. With robust growth projections and a focus on sustainable practices, the region is well-positioned to recover and thrive in the coming years. However, vigilance and innovation remain essential as the industry faces ongoing challenges. By embracing a forward-thinking approach, Asia Pacific can lead the global tourism recovery and set new standards for the industry.
For more detailed insights and to access the full report, visit PATA’s official website.
Written by: Yves Thomas
