In a groundbreaking report released today by the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), strong tourism growth is predicted for the Asia Pacific region, signalling a remarkable recovery from the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Underlining this positive outlook, PATA’s forecasts extend until 2025, providing valuable insights for travel and tourism industry stakeholders.

Backed by Visa and drawing on data and insights from Euromonitor International, these comprehensive reports offer a deep dive into the evolving dynamics of travel and tourism across 39 destinations in the Asia Pacific region. PATA equips industry players with the necessary strategies to thrive over the next three years by analysing the shifting trends at a single destination level.

According to the projections, international visitor arrivals (IVAs) are expected to experience a significant surge in 2023 across all three scenarios. The mild scenario forecasts 705 million arrivals, surpassing pre-pandemic figures from 2019 by an impressive 3.3%. The medium scenario expects 516 million arrivals, indicating a shortfall of approximately 25% compared to 2019. Meanwhile, the severe scenario projects almost 390 million arrivals, leaving the numbers behind by a staggering 43%.

The recovery is set to gain momentum, with the mild and medium scenarios surpassing the 2019 benchmark level of IVAs by the end of 2024. The mild scenario is anticipated to outperform expectations by 6.7% under the medium scenario, with both scenarios showing further strength in 2025. However, the severe scenario suggests that IVAs in 2025 will still fall short of 2019 by around 10%.

Among the destinations, mainland China emerges as a key source market of interest. The latest forecasts indicate that while solid annual growth rates are expected in 2023 under all three scenarios, mainland China’s arrival numbers are not predicted to surpass the 2019 volumes until 2024 in the mild and medium scenarios. Even under the severe scenario, mainland China is projected to lag behind the 2019 peak by approximately six per cent by the end of 2025.

Peter Semone, Chair of PATA, acknowledges the optimistic forecasts but emphasizes the ongoing challenges the travel and tourism sector faces. He highlights the need for vigilance and operational flexibility, as well as addressing persisting issues such as the COVID-19 outbreak, the conflict in Ukraine, a softening global economic outlook, rising inflation, and increased travel costs. Semone affirms that adapting to the diverse demands of today’s and tomorrow’s travellers is essential.

David Fowler, Head of Cross-border & Sales Excellence, Asia Pacific at Visa, underscores the importance of PATA’s forecasts in instilling optimism after nearly three years of border closures. He recognizes that the travel industry must navigate headwinds from shifting traveller habits and preferences in a post-pandemic, hyper-digitalized world. Fowler stresses the need to understand the unique needs of digital-native travellers and provide them with flexible, novel, and personalized travel experiences.

Furthermore, he highlights the significance of data capabilities in the travel ecosystem, as data insights can inform customer engagement strategies and aid in navigating changing travel patterns. To support this, Visa has established a new Centre of Excellence for travel in Asia Pacific, dedicated to helping clients and partners maximize opportunities by leveraging data insights. Fowler emphasizes that well-informed data is crucial for enterprises, especially smaller ones, and local communities to respond swiftly as travel recovery gains momentum across the region.

The “Asia Pacific Destination Forecasts 2023-2025” series by PATA provides an in-depth analysis of each of the 39 destinations covered. The reports offer annual visitor arrival forecasts, recovery rates, changes in visitor share by source market, seasonality patterns, air seat capacity changes, economic outlooks, income and expenditure trends, and domestic tourism insights. These valuable resources are now available on the PATA website at www.PATA.org/catalog.

Written by: Supaporn  Pholrach (Joom)

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