As Ukraine prepares to mark the first anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion on 24 February, Professor Stefan Wolff, a leading expert in international conflict management, has lauded the country’s resilience in the face of ongoing hostilities.

Speaking to The Conversation, Professor Wolff said that Ukraine had proved far more resilient than expected since the war began, and had not only stopped the Russian land grab but also recaptured important territories and inflicted tactical defeats on Russia. The Western alliance, meanwhile, had demonstrated unity in the face of Russia’s aggression and remained committed to supporting Ukraine militarily, politically, and economically.

However, Professor Wolff also warned that Russia remained a potent and unscrupulous opponent and that the tide had not yet decisively turned in Ukraine’s favour. As the war enters its second year, he predicted that Russia would mount more offensive operations to capture Ukrainian territory while continuing to attack critical national infrastructure in Ukraine. Nevertheless, he suggested that with continued Western support, Ukraine would be able to avoid collapse and further humanitarian crises.

Looking ahead, Professor Wolff predicted that the stalemate between Ukraine and Russia was likely to continue until the spring, with drone and missile attacks, artillery and infantry battles, and civilian suffering. He added that neither side would be able to decisively exit the current stalemate, and both would prepare for major offensive operations in the spring.

With Western support, however, Ukraine would be in a better position than Moscow by the spring, but this would not automatically ensure a swift Russian defeat. Among the support that Ukraine is likely to receive is the delivery of advanced air defence systems, more powerful artillery systems and tanks, and possibly more capable drones, as well as advanced training for Ukrainian forces.

Despite the ongoing conflict, Professor Wolff pointed out that Ukraine had already made significant progress in recent years, with economic growth and political reforms taking place despite the difficult security situation. He suggested that Ukraine’s resilience and determination to resist Russian aggression had made it a beacon of hope for other countries facing similar challenges.

However, he warned that the conflict in Ukraine remained a key flashpoint in the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West and that there was a risk of the conflict escalating further if tensions continued to rise.

In conclusion, Professor Wolff’s analysis suggests that while the conflict in Ukraine is far from over, the country’s resilience and determination to resist Russian aggression have been remarkable. With continued Western support, Ukraine may be able to avoid collapse and further humanitarian crisis and emerge from the conflict stronger and more united than ever before. However, the conflict remains a key challenge for the international community and one that will require ongoing attention and engagement in the years to come.

Written by: William Trevan

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