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According to Seatrade news, in their first joint conference appearance during 2020, the Big Four leaders — Arnold Donald, Richard Fain, Frank Del Rio, and Pierfrancesco Vago, speaking during the ‘State of the Global Cruise Industry’ keynote the at Seatrade Cruise Virtual on line conference, all four cruise line leaders voiced optimism about sailing from the US this year with many safety layers in place and a commitment to 100% testing of all passengers and crew.

They pointed to the largely successful slow, gradual resumption of cruising in Europe, the numerous science-based protocols emerging from the recommendations of the Healthy Sail Panel and other experts and a commitment to universal testing as reasons for their optimism.

Richard Fain, chairman and CEO, Royal Caribbean Group said, “We’re at an important tipping point,” adding, “How much we’ve learned, how far we’ve come in six months.” “The time seems right.” “All the forces are coming together”.

Also announced was that the testing of all passengers and crew has been agreed to by all Cruise Lines International Association member lines worldwide, expanding the industry’s earlier commitment to universal testing for all lines subject to the US no-sail order, with CLIA President and CEO Kelly Craighead saying that this applies to ships with the capacity to carry more than 250 people, with Richard Fain adding, “The cruise industry is the sole travel entity — and perhaps the only industry of any kind — to stand behind 100% testing.

Pierfrancesco Vago executive chairman of MSC Cruises which resumed sailing in mid-August from Italy said, “Everybody’s talking about vaccines.” “Vaccines won’t be the magic wand.” “Vaccines will be part of the solution, but testing will be the solution, adding that things have gone well during a gradual startup and passengers rate their experiences highly and that ships can provide a ‘safe cocoon.’

Arnold Donald, president and CEO, of Carnival Corporation & plc said, still, should infections occur, it will be possible to isolate and care for anyone who’s sick and let others go on with their lives (and vacations), with Richard Fain adding that government resources will not be needed to deal with it because we have accounted for it, adding, ‘We can isolate [COVID] without inconveniencing our guests, our crew and, very importantly, the societies we visit and their governments”, also asserting cruise ships have the technology to do contact tracing better than elsewhere.

While the CDC’s no-sail order and CLIA’s voluntary suspension of service go through October, which raised hope cruises may be able to start in November, but Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings said its three brands would delay through November, with NCLH President and CEO Del Rio explaining that it takes time to start up a ship, especially if it’s been laid up for six-plus months, adding, “It is not turning on a light switch”, “We have to repatriate crew”, “We have to install the different technologies and the 74 recommendations from the Healthy Sail Panel.”

He added that certainly the number one obstacle is the no-sail order, but there are others, with in the case of the NCLH brands, it will take at least 60 days to get a ship back into service, adding. “This is not a race”, “I’m in no rush to be the first one out of the gate.” “I want to do things correctly.”

Fain concurred, saying, “But we’re not going to do it until we’re all confident that it’s safe and healthy … The 74 recommendations of the Healthy Sail Panel give us confidence, along with what has happened in Europe.”

When asked if the highly reported shipboard outbreaks and quarantines of the spring would have a lasting impact, Del Rio said he did not think so, adding, didn’t think so, adding, “Bookings are strong”, and “That we are booking as much business as we are booking for the future shows the resiliency,” adding that Oceania Cruises had just racked up its best holiday sale (Labor Day) in the line’s history, while Regent Seven Seas sold out its 2023 world cruise within a week of launching, a first,” “Cruising is going to come back strong”.

The speakers agreed there’s still lots of work to be done, with agencies and government entities within the US and beyond, throughout the Caribbean, as well as other cruise regions including South America, Australia/New Zealand and China and they stressed their efforts are collaborative, with lines working together on all the health safety measures.

With newbuilds are the ultimate sign of confidence in cruising’s future, the executives were asked when they would order next, with Del Rio saying nobody’s in a position to do that now, of course, but that with nine new ships coming for his three brands, the next most likely order would be for Regent, continuing a series whose last delivery is in 2023.

In contrast, the next newbuilds for NCL and Oceania are firsts in new series, with the Project Leonardo ships stretching through 2027 and Oceania’s Allura class through 2025.

Fain pointed out, “None of us have canceled ships,” and “There’s already a long lead time [for deliveries] and these will take a little longer’ due to supply chain and shipyard delays”, But the industry is not going to tail off.” He added, “We will continue to grow,” “We’re getting exceptionally high ratings even with the protocols”, “The protocols will taper off as the science advances” “The industry has a very bright future that will call for growth.”

With 11 ships agreed for MSC Cruises, Vago said, “We have enough already on order,’, adding this is a solid plan that provides for growth.

Carnival Corporation’s Donald said there is quite a book of orders’ through 2025 already “There are plenty on order,” and “They are going to be needed,” because the industry was on a good growth path before COVID and, over time, it will return to that.

A report edited by John Alwyn-Jones from Seatrade News.