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China has without question been a recent boom market for the big cruise companies, who have repositioned vessels from more traditional cruising grounds to China and even built new vessels to capitalise on the booming Chinese cruise market.

Nobody though could have guessed or anticipated that a very simple virus, but one with some potentially pretty dire effects, could trash the Chinese cruise market practically overnight and at a stroke, for what appears could to be some months to come.

So, what are the options for these cruise companies?

One option is to simply mothball the ships where they are, get rid of all the crew, keep skeleton crews on board and see out the virus!

An expensive no revenue, but low overhead option, but one that could avoid them eroding other well-established markets by shifting or repositioning vessels to other regions, which may result in providing too much capacity in those markets, with resulting price slashing to fill the ships

With MSC already cancelling MSC Splendida sailings from Shanghai on 28 January, complying with Chinese government guidelines, MSC added that Splendida would also remain in port for that cruise, which was only a short cruise, but maybe a sign of things to come, by simply leaving ships in port with skeleton crews?

Royal Caribbean has also cancelled Spectrum of the Seas sailings from Shanghai on 27th and 31st Jan.

We also thought we would have a chat with some well-informed cruise gurus and their prognosis was that Australia and Singapore could be receiving some of the multiple cruise ships based in China, as it appears that the suspension will be for 3 to 6 months.

You may recall similar rapid redeployments took place in 2003 for SARS and in 2011 during the Mexican Swine Flu, with Superstar Leo repositioning to Australia practically overnight!

So here we go, here are our cruise gurus crystal ball gazing saying what they think might transpire!

Royal Caribbean

Voyager of the Seas will stay in Sydney on South Pacific cruises.

Spectrum of the Seas and Ovation of the Seas will reposition to Singapore and Tokyo or even stay in Australasia or one guru even said move them then to the US West Coast and S America.

Princess

Majestic Princess will extend her time in Sydney with itineraries similar to currently, before repositioning to Singapore if the suspension is prolonged or even again one guru said move her to the W Coast USA and S America.

Costa

Costa will reposition Costa Atlantica to Sydney or to another Australian port.

Costa Serena, Costa Venezia and Costa NeoRomantica will be repositioned and split across Tokyo and Singapore or one guru said again move them to the W Coast of the USA.

MSC

MSC Splendida will reposition to Tokyo and one guru saying they might even reposition her to Europe or possibly Australia.

Dream

World Dream will reposition to Singapore or Tokyo then Sydney if the suspension is longer.

Explorer Dream will remain in Sydney and Auckland and cruise the region.

Astro Ocean

Piano Land will reposition to Singapore but sell fly cruises to the Australian market.

So, there you go – we may have it totally wrong but without question there are interesting times ahead in several cruise markets.

What are your thoughts?

Written by

John Alwyn-Jones