Although more Australians believe 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018, this is well down from the record high reached at the end of 2002 in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War when 76% of Australians said 2003 would be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2002. In the same year a record low 2% expected 2003 to be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2002.
Australians are less concerned about 2019 than their counterparts in New Zealand. Over two-fifths of New Zealanders (42%) believe 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 while a tenth of New Zealanders (10%) expect 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018. See here for more details on the New Zealand results.
This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.
Next Year – Troubled, peaceful or the same? (Australia)
Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and web surveys in Australia 1982-2018 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year.Question in mid-December 2018: “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018?”
Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same
Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.
Australia’s men (40%) are more concerned that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 than women (35%) while slightly more women (11%) than men (10%) say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.
It turns out expectations that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 is heavily correlated to the age of a respondent. Only 32% of 18-24yr old respondents expect 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018, however this rises with each subsequent age group including 35% of 25-34yr olds, 37% of 35-49yr olds and 43% of those aged 50 years and older.
Australians aged 50 years and older are the least hopeful about prospects for peace this year. Only 5% of Australians in this age group say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.
Total
Australia |
Gender | Age | Total
NZ |
|||||
Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50+ | |||
% | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
Troubled | 38 | 40 | 35 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 43 | 42 |
Same | 47 | 46 | 48 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 49 | 42 |
Peaceful | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 10 |
Don’t know | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same
Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.
Analysing by State shows respondents in all States are expecting 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than a ‘more peaceful year’ compared to 2018 although many respondents expect 2019 will be ‘the same’.
It is respondents in Tasmania (44%) and New South Wales (43%) that are the most concerned that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ compared to around a third of respondents in the other four States.
There are also more optimists in Tasmania than any other State with 16% expecting 2019 to be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018 ahead of 13% of Victorian respondents.
A majority of respondents in South Australia (65%), Queensland (55%), Victoria (54%) and Western Australia (53%) believe 2019 will be ‘the same’ as 2019 or ‘don’t know’.
Respondents in the Country (39%) are marginally more concerned about 2019 being a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 compared to those in the City (37%).
States | City/ Country | |||||||||
Total
Australia |
NSW | VIC | QLD | WA | SA | TAS | City | Country | Total
NZ |
|
% | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
Troubled | 38 | 43 | 33 | 35 | 37 | 33 | 44 | 37 | 39 | 42 |
Same | 47 | 43 | 48 | 52 | 46 | 61 | 36 | 47 | 47 | 42 |
Peaceful | 10 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 10 |
Don’t know | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |